A+ analysis.

It really just show's how many levels to this game there are. I like your point about SB understanding nut advantage and how it is really easy to overbluff. The sizing is probably a tell that he is overbluffing (even though I said he is underbluffing I think that is incorrect after thinking about it). This happens in other spots too where the jam is overbluffed but the raise smaller is underbluffed.

Thanks for the thoughts.

I think your point about him having to x/c KK/KJ/AJ OTT is the most important data point in the hand. He will definitely raise those at a good frequency so that they become discounted OTR.

You kinda did this to yourself
Overbet river, otherwise you're setting yourself up to make the least amount of money possible vs trips

I think pair+straight blocker bluff raises are low frq mixes in theory to balance (very rarely are any bluff raises combo pure), for the regs that are capable of making this play do you think they just go for it pure with these combos? Or do most of them actually randomize and try to balance.

So did he show up with a hand, or did he have some random spaz?

I am doing it pure. Maybe someone like Jarretman can pull off randomizing correctly but I think most regs use it as a hedge against ignorance. Randomizing a spot means you probably don't understand the spot.

Maybe you guessed it but I'm SB here (and yes I am way overbluffing this spot) and I gave BB QTo to see how people would react. I actually really like BB';s sizing if he is trying to induce but it's probably much more likely he doesn't know how to size properly.

Results

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($200) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.6% | Flop Agg: 41.5% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.2% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 14.1% | Hands: 326515]
BB ($273.64) [VPIP: 45.5% | PFR: 40.9% | AGG: 69.6% | Flop Agg: 75% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 80% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 16.7% | Hands: 46]
HJ ($200) [VPIP: 4.2% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 100% | Hands: 25]
CO ($203) [VPIP: 11.8% | PFR: 11.8% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 17]
BTN ($226.08) [VPIP: 9.4% | PFR: 6.3% | AGG: 60% | Hands: 33]

Dealt to Hero: K 7

HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $6, BB Calls $4

Hero SPR on Flop: [16.17 effective]
Flop ($12): 5 J K
HERO Bets $2.85 (Rem. Stack: $191.15), BB Calls $2.85 (Rem. Stack: $264.79)

Turn ($17.70): 5 J K J
HERO Checks, BB Bets $8.41 (Rem. Stack: $256.38), HERO Calls $8.41 (Rem. Stack: $182.74)

River ($34.52): 5 J K J A
HERO Checks, BB Bets $24.60 (Rem. Stack: $231.78), HERO Raises To $182.74 (allin), BB Folds

I'd guess BB is going to have a lot of mergy junk or busted FD after the turn bet size that doesn't make any sense, so I think I'd rather just call K7.

Yeah I like calling better in retrospect.