Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
SB ($200) [VPIP: 45.5% | PFR: 40.9% | AGG: 69.6% | Flop Agg: 75% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 80% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 16.7% | Hands: 46]
HERO ($273.64) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.6% | Flop Agg: 41.5% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.2% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 14.1% | Hands: 326170]
HJ ($200) [VPIP: 4.2% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 100% | Hands: 25]
CO ($203) [VPIP: 11.8% | PFR: 11.8% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 17]
BTN ($226.08) [VPIP: 9.4% | PFR: 6.3% | AGG: 60% | Hands: 33]

Dealt to Hero: Q T

HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Raises To $6, HERO Calls $4

Hero SPR on Flop: [16.17 effective]
Flop ($12): 5 J K
SB Bets $2.85 (Rem. Stack: $191.15), HERO Calls $2.85 (Rem. Stack: $264.79)

Turn ($17.70): 5 J K J
SB Checks, HERO Bets $8.41 (Rem. Stack: $256.38), SB Calls $8.41 (Rem. Stack: $182.74)

River ($34.52): 5 J K J A
SB Checks, HERO Bets $24.60 (Rem. Stack: $231.78), SB Raises To $182.74 (allin), HERO ?

idk what value he has besides AA.

AdJx/AsJx, plus there could realistically be some KK/KJ as well, especially if they’re a player who likes to be “trappy.” I also wonder if any straights might jam as well since we don’t have many boats

idk if that means I’m ever folding, but I don’t think v is necessarily going to have a shortage of boats here. Interesting spot

KK, KJ, JJ, AJ

I think KK/KJ do this at pretty high frequency, no reason to bet turn.

I'm assuming you are calling though if you think his value is mostly AA?

If I think B-B-B lines are overbluffed in this config, then this line looks pretty strong.

Looks like a fold. You have blockers for both flushes, his value is KJ/JJ/KK/AA, not AJ obviously. He could be slightly over valuing 55 also.

Are you setting the export option to show stats up to the time of the hand in DH2, or just showing overall? He's obviously pretty splashy and aggressive so far, and maybe there's some tilt if he's a fresh 200bbs?

When the heck did this get added lol

Both turn and river are too small.

I think the blockers are actually good to call in theory since we unblock more bluffs.

Are you calling or folding river?

I'm not sure if villain is going to turn hands with diamonds/spades alot into bluffs so our unblockers to bluffs are okay, I think his bluffs are probably Kx and 5x w straight blockers (KT, T5s etc), Td is slightly better to call here than Ts since we want to unblock T5s, if we assume villain isnt jamming QT for thin value Id way rather call a Jx hand which we have a lot of. Close but I think it's still a fold, probably a high frequency fold if not pure in theory, could be wrong. I think big river raises are generally underbluffed anyways, but could be proven wrong by data lol.

Folding, but I'm sure he showed up with A5 or even something more random lol

Not sure exactly. Many DH2 builds ago though.

Actually, my bad. I guess it was never checked in. I probably shouldn't post when I'm sick. lol

Ya, of course... that's my cold talking (sniffle)... meant the opposite. Still a fold, unless those are his final stats... and if so, then it may lean call, just because he looks like a typical ignition nutball, and may not be thinking about anything other than, how can I get him to fold?

I would build my turn betting range around Jx and go bigger.

Folding river as played.

Seems like a relatively easy fold.

This line seems underbluffed to begin with and your sizing isn't even inviting it. It's also entirely possible you have AJ-KJ. Finally, villain is trying to make you fold a straight BvB which imo population will have a hard time doing.



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checking the turn with KJ/AJ/KK, or whatever, on a double FD board seems bad on a turn that the IP is just going to check a ton. They would probably x/r anyway. Seeing that this guy has been super active, I'm not folding.

The field overstabs as IP vs B-X by around 10% as BB and even more on paired turn middle/low so why do you think they check a ton?

KJ5 looks like a board where people are going to fold a lot to cbets. I think it's better to try to play a big pot here, instead of caring about getting a small bet from trash hands that might not exist at all.

It's something I think is not talked about enough. I'm wondering this myself, so in a spot like this do you project your own thought process onto a reg if you are playing against a reg?

Because 100% what you said in the first part is true - they definitely overfold flop here. In your mind you would never slowplay here because you want to build a big pot so you think he has almost no value when he plays the B-XC-XR game, right?

Let me know if I have it wrong because I think it's pretty cool how two regs can perceive a common spot completely differently.

Villain isn't trying to make you fold a straight since he jams a straight, He's trying to make you a fold Jx with a blocker. But I do think it is underbluffed.

I think vs someone who is able to realise that he has a nutadvantage and is not afraid to take atvandage of it this spot will be overbluffed here super easy. According to my calculation if villain has around 12+ bluffs it is a overbluff. Just KQ KT are already 18 combos wich are on the first sight nice intuitive jams but i think what makes the spot so easy to overbluff is that he can choose any 2 cards if his thoughprocess is i have nuts more often then you and he does not have realy clear blockers that he would prefere. Very easy to follow the first thought here the obivoius i have nuts but forget about balance and how much bluffs there are to choose from.
One more point here is that he has the option to size the x/r smaller here with value to get called by streights and jx this will happen more often with value then bluffs (just affecting the value bluff ratio a bit and shifitng a shove again more towards bluff)

I can't really explain my thought process, but I definitely don't project my thought process onto the other player. Maybe there's some kind of bias but who knows.

On the turn after he xc a smallish bet, I think Kx/FD/SD are a lot more likely than Trips+ than they're supposed to be, so that makes me think that it will be really easy for an aggro SB to overbluff here and not have anywhere close to enough value compared to what a solver says.

I woukd have put him kn ak