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River jam too thin? River jam too thin?

03-01-2024 , 02:33 AM
Ignition 25z 6max
Seat 5: Small Blind ($35.52 in chips)
Seat 6: Big Blind [ME] ($27.07 in chips)

Small Blind : Card dealt to a spot [REDACTED]
Big Blind [ME] : Card dealt to a spot [8s Qd]

Small Blind : Raises $0.65 to $0.75
Big Blind [ME] : Raises $2.15 to $2.40
Small Blind : Calls $1.65

($4.58) *** FLOP *** [Js 7s 3h]

Small Blind : Checks
Big Blind [ME] : Bets $2.28
Small Blind : Calls $2.28

($8.9)*** TURN *** [Js 7s 3h] [Qc]

Small Blind : Checks
Big Blind [ME] : Bets $5.87
Small Blind : Calls $5.87

($20.6)*** RIVER *** [Js 7s 3h Qc] [7c]

Small Blind : Checks
Big Blind [ME] : All-in $16.52


preflop: polar 3b range from bb.
OTF: I'm gonna use 50% or check on this board bc dynamic J high board. I choose b50 bc I have 8s blocking some continues with a weak BDFD, and backdoor straight draw. I think this bet should fold out some non FD hands that have me dominated or good equity against me (A10s, A9s, A8s, A2s, K10s, K9s, Q9s). Once V calls, I think they will have Jx, FDs, straight draws, 22-1010, and probably some A10/AJ/AQ with a spade that didn't 4b pre.
Turn: I'll build b66 or check on this turn. I value b 2/3 on Qc to get value from Jx, 7x, underpairs, and FDs
River: I'm not entirely sure if this is a shove, or I should just check back. On one hand, it's BVB (even 3b pot) and ranges are wider than normal so I think he could call me down light with some random Jx, or maybe even underpair if he thinks I have too much air and I'm overbluffing. On the other, he can still have lots of 7x (suited combos of A7,K7,Q7, J7?, 87,76), and I'm blocking spades with 8s. I think this is still a value bet because I'd guess some people would donk jam river 7 with some of these combos, but still I'm not entirely sure.

Anyone have thoughts?
River jam too thin? Quote
03-01-2024 , 03:13 AM
Your thought process is very sound, it's unfortunate we have no tells on SB.

I would check back vs regs, I don't think we'll get called very light and they're XC-XC range is probably either GTO or too strong as well as overfolding and under 4-betting pre. I really doubt they're donking spade, J, or 7 rivers often. People like to call on Ignition though so it's close and I wouldn't worry about it.
River jam too thin? Quote
03-01-2024 , 07:45 AM
Flop is either a check/smaller because it sounds like the purpose of our bet is to deny equity and sizing down accomplishes the same thing.

Turn is a check because we no longer need to deny equity with our hand. Imo it is unlikely we can get 3 streets, so another plan is to xb ott and either bluff catch otr or then value bet.

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River jam too thin? Quote
03-02-2024 , 08:34 AM
Flop and turn are okay.
If your opponent is capable of bluff-catching with 7x hands, then a value bet makes sense and you can profit from fold equity if he is likely to fold most of their range.
So jamming on the river looks break-even.
River jam too thin? Quote
03-03-2024 , 02:10 AM
If we step back and look at your rationale - Q8o readless 3b - suggests you expect some overfolding pre - as we don't have reads, we cannot say we expect wide opens. So we can imply we expect to be up against a stronger than average range post flop.
This weakens TP/WK in B-B-B line.

OTF - pool tends to over fold v solver, so our assumptions about the hands we want to fold out might be quite good & we deny equity.
I have solver folding 38% and pool folding 42% on Bxx flop in this formation (both v 1/2 pot bet).

OTT - Solver prefers a check - pool both folds more weak hands and calls strong hands OTF more than solver, so turn gets worse for our hand from that perspective, meaning check looks the better option.
Looking ahead is where is gets REALLY interesting - and thinking river through OTT actually informas our turn line, more thna turn factors.

OTR - Villain probes 46%Frq with 35% being weak (small pair/air) so you've have an easy and profitable river call after opting to check turn.

On Bxx board where turn is OC, 42% of pool probe range is weak - so check turn call river looks really nice.
Additionally, looking at pools's XC-X-XC range, we can comfortably take more value when checked to

Ingnoring alternative lines, KQ looks like your worst value shove on river.
River jam too thin? Quote

      
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