Hi, do you think I have value bet on river? what does call me? what sizing use and why?
Do you think that villains check on turn with fd is correct? thanks
villain's stats: 23/18 3bet 8 cbet 50%


Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $30.25 (121 bb)
BB: $41.39 (165.6 bb)
UTG: $57.11 (228.4 bb)
MP: $51.50 (206 bb)
Hero (CO): $58.73 (234.9 bb)
BTN: $27.16 (108.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q K
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.62, BTN raises to $1.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.13

Flop: ($3.85) T 5 Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.32, Hero calls $1.32

Turn: ($6.49) J (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($6.49) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Results: $6.49 pot ($0.29 rake)
Final Board: T 5 Q J 5
Hero showed Q K and won $6.20 ($3.13 net)
BTN mucked 8 6 and lost (-$3.07 net)

I'd go 40-50% pot here. You have the best hand majority of the time and just want to get called by a worse Q or J. No need to bomb it though and fold him off those hands. AP he should probably bluff that river and if he did you should call.

Edit: don't post results

Hi, do you think I have value bet on river?
Yes.

what does call me?
Depends on the sizing.

what sizing use and why?
Would probably go around 30%. I'm not expecting to get called here often at all and I'm trying to get value from Tx,Jx..

Do you think that villains check on turn with fd is correct?
yes. Knowing what v is holding and that board hits your range good. You might even have the nuts here, so why would I bet when I can get a free card?

does something change if villain cbet 1/2 of pot?

Not really, but what was your reasoning for calling the 3bet?

I'd bet the river small (though it is thin) since I expect most Vs to barrel fd's ott. Given he checked, I put him on nothing which is not going to bluff the river of some weak sd value like AJ.

it is standard call in the positions.

Yeah, +1 to this. I would imagine villain would double barrel a lot of the high-equity draws in his range OTT, so his turn checkback is primarily Tx / Jx weak SDV hands. Checking back KQ / AQ is probably fine too.

I would go about half pot. Doubt he calls any of his Tx's, but I think half pot gets him to call the Jx's.

+1 bet small.

Villain check turn is fine, if you never have flush draws when you check back turn you’ll be at a serious disadvantage on river flush cards, which is 20% of all cards

I don't mind going 1/3p here like 2.20 or something.