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Is this river bet +EV? Is this river bet +EV?

07-08-2017 , 12:20 AM
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php

CO ($31.23).... 50/6/2.9 /106H
Button ($46.76)
SB ($16.97)
BB ($39.66) ...47/34/0.9 / 9.7 3B/ 95H (3B-Squeezed me once)/ 26wtsd,39wwsf
UTG ($27.52)
Hero (MP) ($31.30)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, J
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.60, CO calls $0.60, Button raises to $2.69, 2 folds, Hero raises to $5.75, 1 fold, Button calls $3.06

Flop: ($12.75) 7, 6, 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $4.02, Button calls $4.02

Turn: ($20.79) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: ($20.79) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $21.48 (All-In)

I was planning on x/f OTT, however, the guy checked and that tells me something about his range since all strong hands are betting there...
OTR I felt like I can fold a lot of his range, so I went for this river bet the one I want to check out if on the long run is leaving us some money... How much do we need him to fold to turn profit?
Is this river bet +EV? Quote
07-08-2017 , 12:54 AM
Preflop is pretty questionable. Sizing is bad and the hand choice isn't great either. Flop and turn seem fine, though I would use a slightly larger sizing OTF.

I guess you can fold out AK/AQ OTR, but you can't really represent many value hands here, if any. Maybe it could be profitable though, and this is probably one of the worst hands in your range.
Is this river bet +EV? Quote
07-08-2017 , 01:02 AM
With such a weak cbet and a turn check, it screams that you don't have anything including a flush draw. There's no way the 2 helped you on the river. The river just looks like a bluff to me.
Is this river bet +EV? Quote
07-08-2017 , 05:43 AM
Just call pre flop.
You need like 50%+ of fold equity.Maybe you ll get enough folds if he dose play all AK like this but there are better lines to be taken with this hand form the start,and btw you dont rep pretty much anything.
Is this river bet +EV? Quote
07-08-2017 , 08:56 AM
Pre-flop: just call
River: it looks like a bluff to me. There's no way that you have a 2 and it's hard to believe that you have a FD if you are checking the turn after your BDFD becomes a standard FD.
Is this river bet +EV? Quote

      
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