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Required river sizing to make implied odds favorable (data analysis) Required river sizing to make implied odds favorable (data analysis)
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02-22-2024 , 10:36 AM
#1
tdammon
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adept
Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 707
Doing some work into implied odds and thought I'd make a chart for those interested.

We are looking at turn scenarios where we have a flush draw facing a V bet. The chart details how large of a river bet we need to make and get called in order to have the implied odds to call on the turn. This is assuming we don't win the pot any other way.

The left hand column is Vs bet as a percentage of the pot. The right hand column is how large of a river bet we need to make and get called as a percentage of the pot.

The chart assumes we hit the flush 20% of the time.



If anyone has any opinions or suggestions I'd love to hear them.
Required river sizing to make implied odds favorable (data analysis) Quote
02-22-2024 , 08:37 PM
#2
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aner0
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Verified Coach NLHE
Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 3,680
Your calculations may be right but im pretty sure theyre not practical because you dont always get called when you bet and there are other ways of winning the pot when you miss.

This also assumes that you want to reach break even when if you assume youre getting called to any size u should obviously jam.

You shouldnt, in my opinion, try to nail down implied odds to any precise number. Things like future bluffing opportunities, your opponents putting money in the pot in multiple possible ways are too complex to be taken into account precisely
Required river sizing to make implied odds favorable (data analysis) Quote
02-23-2024 , 09:37 AM
#3
tdammon
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adept
Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 707
Quote:
Originally Posted by aner0
Your calculations may be right but im pretty sure theyre not practical because you dont always get called when you bet and there are other ways of winning the pot when you miss.

This also assumes that you want to reach break even when if you assume youre getting called to any size u should obviously jam.

You shouldnt, in my opinion, try to nail down implied odds to any precise number. Things like future bluffing opportunities, your opponents putting money in the pot in multiple possible ways are too complex to be taken into account precisely
Yeah I totally I agree. I think a lot of mathematical metrics in poker are good landing points and helpful for creating a baseline though. As a newish player it at least gives me a decent idea of what sizings I actually do have the right implied odds to call.
Required river sizing to make implied odds favorable (data analysis) Quote
02-27-2024 , 11:56 AM
#4
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ranka
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 7,496
Quote:
Originally Posted by aner0
Your calculations may be right but im pretty sure theyre not practical because you dont always get called when you bet and there are other ways of winning the pot when you miss.

This also assumes that you want to reach break even when if you assume youre getting called to any size u should obviously jam.

You shouldnt, in my opinion, try to nail down implied odds to any precise number. Things like future bluffing opportunities, your opponents putting money in the pot in multiple possible ways are too complex to be taken into account precisely
I think it's good start to choose correct betsizing river, and as well to think, if drawing on the turn worth or not. Obviously cant calculate exact percents, but as tdammon wrote, its good landing point.
Required river sizing to make implied odds favorable (data analysis) Quote
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