Folds to us OTB - we open 99 for 2.5xBB

SB3bets to 11BB, BB folds - we call.

Flop comes Q53

SB 1/3 range we call.

Turn is a 7

SB X.

Are you stabbing turn here for small?

I am because it works 100% of the time in my database (1/1)

Follow up question for those who X back turn.

If you X back turn and the river is a low card under 99 and SB checks - Are you always value betting 99 OTR?

I just played a hand like this where the 3 bettor checked on the flop. So what if the flop is checked to you, do you take a stab or check back?

It's mixed but I'd X back

I pretty much always bet this small in practice and I think it works really well. I prefer checking a hand like JJ. I think river should clearly be bet when checked to on a brick if we check back. People will almost always go for two streets on this runout with Qx+ so I think we're rarely beaten by much other than JJ-TT.

I agree it works really well in practice. SB will fold here vs 1/3 44% of the time and they should only fold 20%.

What's the lowest pocket pair you value bet when the action goes cbet flop/call
x/x turn and SB checks river?

Def betting here, standard equity denial but also means you'll more likely face a check than a bet on the river, which is probably a good thing

To play devil’s advocate, if we think the same types of hands that x/f or x/c turn will bet river, wouldn’t we rather x turn and bluff catch river?

Exactly - this is what I want to exploit

baby bump first trimester

It frustrates me that I don't have any counter to this!

I think I'd just rather have control of what happens and can bet or check depending on runout, rather than go into auto-bluff-catch mode

Yes, which is one of the reasons why I voted to x/b. My guess would be this is the better population exploit, as players are not checking hands like KQ/QJs that probably should take a b/x/b line for value here. So when they do take this line they are biased towards bluffs, depending on the river card.

The small turn bet with our middling hands to buy a cheap showdown can be an effective exploit, but I think in 3-bet pots where the OOP players range is way more defined we can make more with a x/b & bluffcatch.

I know you advocated a X back here. Let's say you X back 99 OTT. The river comes a non broadway card. SB checks again OTR - are you value betting 99 here? What's the worst hand you value bet?

I think that is why most people like stabbing OTT.

Are you stabbing weaker hands like 66 here as well?

Admittedly this is part of my game that needs some more work. 99 is on the cusp. JJ is a slam dunk bet, TT is probably a bet, 99 gets iffy, and anything worse is probably just a check. Although JJ and probably TT are 4-bets pre BTN vs SB.

check behind almost always. OOP check may look like permission to bet but if you do bet 9s aren't doing so great against they're calling range. Plus by checking behind you give them a chance to bluff the river

Tough spot.

I checked the solution here and 99 is mixed between betting small and checking back on the turn.

500NL


50NL


I can see the equity realization argument for "buying a showdown", so to speak. Most players will not donk the river or check-raise wide enough in these spots.

Exploitatively, you could make the argument that villain may barrel turn too linearly and cap their checking range too much. In this case, I think 99's become a much better bet.

As you can see, SB is supposed to check a reasonable number of traps.



Not always. 99s mostly checks on a flush completing river. I checked a few different runouts and it's mixing bets on most low rivers, and checking back on most spades, overcards, 8x, etc.

May I ask why there's a difference between NL50 and 500 since we have the same stack depth?（Seems like the preflop range is different）
I suppose we should have same GTO preflop range as long as the number of player, stack depth etc. are same.
If not, does GTO preflop range affected by player pool ?

Different rake

Exploitatively we bet ott because no one defends their checking range enough

In theory, checking back ott because we value own ourselves vs JJ-TT and don't block any of villains CRAI range (would bet with JJ-TT, 9s9x, 8s8x, 66)

Checking back river

The preflop ranges are different, and the postflop strategies are different. Ranges get tighter as you increase the rake.

500NL = 5% rake capped at 0.6bb
50NL = 5% rake capped at 4bb

So 500NL maxes out the rake at 0.6/5% = 12bb+ pots.
50NL maxes out the rake at 4/5% = 80bb+ pots.

The pot is about 35bb in these solutions. In other words, at 50NL you're still being taxed 5% on every call, which cuts into your value. Whereas at 500NL you've already maxed out the rake.

Regs in my pool have a significantly strong x range OOP, fme. You have to or you'll get run over.

So this thread deals with this question I've asked myself quite a bit over the last several years. Is it better to deny equity when IP or check with the intent to bluff catch? I think in super marginal spots with most of our middling strength hands it's the latter, especially when dealing with regs who will attack a perceived capped range. Very cool thread DDP.

Got it, thanks for reply