Tough spot.
I checked the solution here and 99 is mixed between betting small and checking back on the turn.
500NL
50NL
I can see the equity realization argument for "buying a showdown", so to speak. Most players will not donk the river or check-raise wide enough in these spots.
Exploitatively, you could make the argument that villain may barrel turn too linearly and cap their checking range too much. In this case, I think 99's become a much better bet.
As you can see, SB is supposed to check a reasonable number of traps.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker
Follow up question for those who X back turn.
If you X back turn and the river is a low card under 99 and SB checks - Are you always value betting 99 OTR?
Not always. 99s mostly checks on a flush completing river. I checked a few different runouts and it's mixing bets on most low rivers, and checking back on most spades, overcards, 8x, etc.