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profitable shove in mw pot? profitable shove in mw pot?

08-06-2022 , 01:27 PM
PartyGaming - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 107.4 BB
BB: 105.8 BB
UTG: 100 BB
MP: 19.2 BB
CO: 101 BB
Hero (BTN): 185.4 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 8 9

UTG raises to 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, SB calls 2.6 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (18 BB, 6 players) 7 9 T
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets 17.2 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 182.4 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 79.8 BB

Turn: (212 BB, 2 players) K

River: (212 BB, 2 players) 9

UTG shows K K (Full House, Kings full of Nines)
(Pre 79%, Flop 58%, Turn 82%)
Hero shows 8 9 (Three of a Kind, Nines)
(Pre 21%, Flop 42%, Turn 18%)
UTG wins 201.4 BB
Hero wins 85.4 BB

0,4 x 118 -0.6 x 80 =5,2. Is my ev calculation right and therefore shove justified?
profitable shove in mw pot? Quote
08-07-2022 , 08:08 AM
Pot size (before our bet):.......35.2 (pot 18bb + UTG bet 17.2bb)
Our bet:.................................. 97 (UTG bet 17.2bb + 79.8bb UTG stack)
UTG Call:.................................79.8
Our equity:.............................42%
__________________________________

EV = 0.42 x (35.2 + 79.8) - (1 - 0.42) x 97 = -7.96bb

Shove is not justified even without considering the two people seating after us.
profitable shove in mw pot? Quote

      
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