Vilain is a 50/33/13 fish aggro, his CO RFI is 29.6%, his 4B rate after raise is 14.7%.

Also he folds extremely little at 3B, only 16% and I've never seen it open limp.

Winamax - €4 NL (5 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 108 BB
CO: 96.47 BB
BTN: 367.5 BB
SB: 171.29 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

CO raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, Hero ??


What is the best play here? 3Bet 9, 11, 13+ BB? Call? Fold? Personally, I prefer call but I think it's closed.

I also wonder if 3B shove is not an option...

I think you should be able to figure this out...

move up to 2k NL.

I like small 3bet.
Calling might be ok if he is hyper aggro and 3barrels every time

ChatGPT says...

In this scenario, considering the villain's aggressive tendencies and wide opening range, a cautious approach like folding might actually be the most prudent choice. While Ace-King is a strong hand, it's important to recognize that the villain's range is likely to contain many hands that dominate you, such as Ace-Queen, Ace-Jack, and pocket pairs. Given the risk of facing a strong hand and the potential for being outplayed post-flop by an aggressive opponent, folding can be a reasonable option to avoid getting into a difficult and potentially costly situation. Therefore, in this particular instance, folding could be the best play.

chatgpt is a live nit reg :0

I think it's a little more complex than it looks...

We all want 3Bet by Pavlovian reflex but for example if I make 12bb he will call +80% of the time, and if the flop comes Q98 or 863 or 986 I will often check and he will be able to bet big or even go all-in and I'll lose $52.

I think we can find very serious reasons to call AKo but in my opinion they have nothing to do with that.

Just don't check

About the 3B small proposal that I hadn't seen, I think that doesn't solve the problem on the contrary it makes it worse, his fold to 3B will go from 15% to 0% and we will have almost the same postflop EV against his calling range with AKo.

Check EV on these flops will very often be better than bet against this profile which will call and raise Cbet more often than theory.

I had also thought about xr allin to represent KK-AA but I fear that this profile would call me a 2nd pair...

If this is a troll, kudos.

If this is not a troll definitely 3bet ~13bb. If he 4bets 14.7%, awesome. Easiest jam in the world when he does that.

You're way ahead of his range that continues when you have AKo and he calls you preflop. You aren't going to win every hand and sometimes you're going to have to fold. But your EV is much higher by 3betting. Just think if you hit an A or K and he does too with his trash range you have a good chance to stack him. Yeah every once in a while he will hit some weird two pair or straight or something and stack you, but for the most part if you play decent postflop you are going to print off this guy.

It's not a troll, I think this is really close.

AKo is not a hand that generates a lot of EV oop in 3BP.

The best EV result you can get when you 3B in the blinds is just that it folds, very far ahead call or 4B.

Unfortunately here vilain does not fold.

Which, in my opinion, is not without consequences on the EV of 3B.

Pure fold everyone knows AK is a drawing hand

The EV of 3betting is absolutely higher than just calling. Yes, you love for villain to fold when you 3bet AKo. But our EV when we get called or 4bet is way higher than normal because villain is supposed to fold a ton of his range to a 3bet but he keeps in a lot of his trash.

When you have the betting lead, you are more likely to be able to win the pot through aggression.

Yeah, sometimes you whiff the board, but he whiffs the board just as often. When you hit the board, which you often will, you have him crushed. If you both hit the board, chances are you have him crushed. If the flop comes A high and you have AK and he had A7, you probably win a huge pot.

I'm going to go off on a pretty while whim here and guess that you 3-bet this hand and lost

Concerning EV when he calls, what you say is true, it increases.

We now capture a higher percentage of the pot postflop if vilain only folds 15% at 3Bets, which is simply explained by our gain in EQ against a wider and more dominated calling range.

That being said, it is not enough to compensate absence of folds 3B, EV loss in fold 3B percentages lost increases faster than our EQ against its call 3B surplus, with AKo.

3B's EV decreases against it.

Even if basic, 3B AKo BBvCO has a better EV than call, better by around 0.7bb precisely and it's a pure 3B.

In reality 3bet shove is maybe or probably the best play against this opponent.

It's possible but it's also possible that it's a little less trivial than that.

I run into this a lot too. I'd recommend narrowing your OOP 3betting range temporarily and studying the spot until you feel more comfortable with it.

That said we are still going to 3 bet AK.

If you find the pool you face is overly aggressive when checked to here consider checking back when you hit top pair.

This can't be correct.

I don't think this assertion is true.

Against the same profile which would no longer open 30% but only 20% as at HJ, we could fairly qualify 3Bet not allin with AKo as dramatic or a financial disaster.

But against 30% it seems close.

you are either a troll or you better play 0,04NL

It's just mathematical, we will gain 5-6% EQ against its wider calling range and on this 5-6% EQ we will not realize much, between 80 and 85% max.

The ad hominem attack as a refuge from the frustration of misunderstanding the complex issues that my topic raises is not a good thing.

Minraise

Calling and folding are too weak - you have to let this guy know you mean business by taking the initiative, but this way you lose the least when you miss. Simple math