Instead of just being afraid of the flush you have to ask yourself "why would villain check a flush on the river on this given runout". What does it look like you have? Is there a reason based on the line you took that villain would decide to bluff catch a flush OTR? When deciding what to do OTR, walk through the hand and establish your perceived range (what it looks like you have from villains shoes). So, given that you called a x/r OTF you almost definitely have either a strong TPGK hand, a flush draw, J10, or some combo draw like AJd AdJx A10d Ad10x. The turn card is expected to help your range. Your flush draws just got there, J10 got there, AK improved. However, villain now knows you weren't calling OTF with the nut flush draw or those combo draws that I mentioned. This makes it more likely that you have Kx, a marginal flush, broadway straight with J10, or top two w/ AK. IMO the Ad turn card is a very deceptive "scare card" in villains eyes. Lots of villains at micro stakes would view this turn card as a scare card when in reality it helps a good chunk of heroes range, but not all of it. I'm not saying this card doesn't help a chunk of villains range, it certainly does. However, I think at these stakes a lot of the half-competent LAG players will overestimate how much they can use this card to scare you. Basically, they won't be good enough hand readers to realize this Ad turn card helps Hero quite a bit. So, since there is a lot of Kx that hero is expected to have and that Villain can be perceived to have flushes here, we should not be surprised if villain continues bluffing on this turn. We are showing a lot of strength when we cold call the turn here. What is a drawing hand range we can have that villain would choose to bluff catch w/ his flushes? We can have Kdx and thats about it. Thats not a big chunk of our range. Our value hands are AA, AK, AQ is a big maybe based on hero vs villain dynamic, J10, and flushes. That being said it's quite apparent that our perceived value range is MUCH wider than our perceived drawing range. For this reason Villain should be betting his flushes OTR since we have so few missed draws that will bluff and a value range that he is doing very well against and that if he checks he is then allowing a good chunk of our value range to happily check back and see showdown. As played, it seems that most of the time villain is just giving up on a bluff here and the hand is essentially over. However, you must keep in mind that most villains at micro stakes (especially recs) will not have the the analytical thought process mentioned in this post and that the unpredictability of a recs logic is simply so all over the place that it is nearly impossible to devise a perfect way too exploit their behavior on a hand to hand basis. That being said, I think we can expect a random 5NL player to have some x/c's OTR like KQ, K3s, Q3s, maaaaaaybe AJ/A10 (not all recs 3bet these pre) and maaaaaaybe 33 if for some donkish reason he checks the river with it. IMO, we can bet this river somewhere around 70% pot expecting villain to fold an overwhelming amount of the time, call a small amount of the time, and shove a very small amount of the time. if we do get shoved on then LOL villain probably played a flush horribly and we have to start crying and complaining to our computer monitor about how bad we run and how bad our opponents are while we fold. All these x/c river hands I mentioned would shove such an insanely small amount of the time so we wouldn't expect him to hold them if we got shoved on. Also, villain should never expect us to be bluffing here so its unlikely he'd x/r bluff, he'd much more likely just triple barrel the river with his bluffs as opposed to x/r OTR. In conclusion, bet ~70% pot OTR and if we get shoved on we get to LOL at how bad villain is with his flush while folding and hopefully not breaking anything.
^ Looks like some decent advice from what I've read(only about half of it) but I would seriously consider using paragraphs in future to make it easier to get through.
@OP. Given I expect villain to check a flush here basically never I'd want to bet.
I have a hard time believing many would x river with a flush with a very high frequency + we also have Jd so we block some of his stronger flushes, so I'd just ship it hoping he makes a bad call with 33/KQ/AQ type hands.
I have a hard time believing many would x river with a flush with a very high frequency + we also have Jd so we block some of his stronger flushes, so I'd just ship it hoping he makes a bad call with 33/KQ/AQ type hands.