Anonymous fast fold tables...

Ignition - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 206.16 BB
BTN: 80.5 BB
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 161.28 BB
UTG: 143.34 BB
MP: 936.26 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 2 T A
Hero bets 1.86 BB, BB calls 1.86 BB

Turn: (9.72 BB, 2 players) 4
Hero bets 14.24 BB, BB calls 14.24 BB

River: (38.2 BB, 2 players) K
Hero bets 80.9 BB and is all-in

This is a line I have picked up from doing a lot of work in GTO Wizard, but I question whether it works very well in practice. In GTO Wizard, villain calls the river shove with a lot of Ace no kicker hands. I question whether this would happen very often in real play. Would a more conservative line win more money in practical play? And if the line isn't so hot in practical play, does that mean it would make an excellent bluffing line?

Thanks for any help!

Agreed, probably not going to get the light call downs to justify this.

Most players only take this line with the nuts.

Why is solver OB shoving river? We pay off any/all straight/sets?

Looks good

I like it. We need to stack Ax and worse two pair which shouldn't be folding.

Agree this line is good to occasionally bluff. Which would be what kinds of hands?

I don’t know about fast fold. But I think this line is pretty good in practice on ignition reg tables. I have some pretty great hand histories from the last 2K hands or so of people calling off my overbet shoves

Dunno about your pool, but on stars, this is definitely the type of line that will get overfolded.

Villain is incentivised to raise nutted hands OTF or OTT, and not supposed to call any QJ OTT, except I guess QJcc. So we have a huge nut advantage OTR.

I agree from my somewhat limited experience. It seems that my river overbets get a lot of folds, even though I have slightly aggro stats. I am not confident enough on this pool read that I would yet start to overbet with bluffs and bet smaller with value.

As far as OK in solver land goes, this may be the type of flop it elects to size up on. Give it the option of 1/2 pot and 2/3 pot as well and see what goes with, but I think 2 broadway flush draw flops may trend larger, I'd have to check. Especially when we are the OOP player with a big range/nut advantage. Solvers like to check OOP as well which would likely skew its bets larger.

I don't think the shove is that bad in either case. It can be really hard to evaluate the merits of them on a single case basis. It doesn't have to get a lot of calls to be +EV over a pot sized bet. It's a wet board where all the obvious draws bricked out, against a player population that likely under-raises draws compared to what a solver would. Any sized bet is going to likely get a lot of folds. It's unlikely you will ever get the sample size to know if this size is better than another, but if you have a significant database you can try and see how the population reacts in similar situations. My gut tells me there is a good chance the shove is potentially good in theory and in practice.

We get stacked by these hands whatever sizing we choose, right? Maybe I don't understand the question. But ya... as YARR123 said, we get to bet huge on the turn and river since we have so many nutted hands compared to BB. In this specific case, villain can have 53s though when we can't. So GTO Wizard doesn't go completely bonkers with the overbets on the turn. On a 6d turn, it would be going full throttle I assume. Just checked... 19.4% overbets on a 6d vs. 7.6% on the 4d. And with my specific combo, it only overbets 30% of the time. It also likes 2/3 and checking a lot.

In GTO Wizard, it bluffs with most 4x hands + some 3x and 5x hands that overbet the turn. It prefers to give up with most missed flush draws since they block villain's folding range.

I am wondering if I am conceptually misunderstanding the river shove. Like maybe it is still the best play even if villain doesn't make the solver-style hero calls? Villain is unlikely to ever raise us without a straight, so maybe shoving is still the best play even against foldier opponents.

In the GTO Wizard complex 50 NL solutions, it mostly chooses the smaller bets on this flop texture. Since it has like 15 sizes to choose from, it mixes in some bigger bets here and there. But it's like 50% small, 42% check, and the rest is bigger sizes. I do have a lazy habit of spamming small cbets though.

It would be impossible to get a population read on these river shoves because so few players actually do anything like this. I am usually one of the only players in the pool overbetting at all on the turn and river. I think I might be on the verge of agreeing with you that this shove is good in practice though, as I mentioned to JohnRusty above.



Thanks for the feedback everyone! I am having a lot of fun experimenting with these huge solver bets.

Hmm Yeah maybe that's why GTO wiz doesn't want to overbet like crazy, 53s completes and A4s is now very strong. 44 is also possible.

Now thinking about it, maybe it's not as clear a OB spot than I initially thought. I think it's still fine, but the 4 is not a complete brick.

Ah, I'd never really thought about out of position OBs before. A river shoving range makes sense to cause maximum indifference to villain's crying range

Yeah me too and I have mixed opinions on it. On one hand I want to get better at sizing properly according to range and texture, while on the other hand my understanding is that a small c-bet with a wide range is much less of a mistake than a large c-bet with the wrong range, so we keep ourselves out of trouble a lot more. OOP is even trickier since if we have a check range, especially on a board where we have a range advantage like this one, we have to defend it pretty well or we are giving up a lot of free money to our opponents.