sLAG?

Smart LAG

sLAG = slightly LAG

imo the tables are just going to keep getting nittier as time goes on... that's been the steady progression basically nonstop from the dawn of internet poker to now. Playing LAG is where the money's going to be.

I kind of enjoy sitting at a 25NL table full of nitbots and LAGing it up... invariably the table breaks up after a couple rounds. They just do NOT want a LAG that knows what he's doing around.

Yeah, there's no magic anti-variance wand (well, besides NOT posting on 2+2 while on the bubble in a half dozen tournaments ). If you give, you gotta take from somewhere else.

To a certain extent, optimum playing style is determined by our opponents. We're only 1 player at a table of 6, 9 or 10 people. There's only a limited degree to which we can impose our will on the table. If you play a nitty 6/3/1 style at 400NL you're going to be at best, an FPP pro. OTOH, playing LAG style is going to be difficult at 2NL because you can't push anyone off a hand, ever.

Obviously there is a range of profitable styles. If you are better than your opponents then playing more hands and playing them aggressively gives you more opportunity to take their monies. This too is a balancing act - 100% VPIP is a fun exercise against donks but not conducive to long term success.

TAG is often considered a "happy medium" between long term profitability and short term variance. Trying to reduce variance from TAG may work on a case by case basis, but if you take a systematic approach then you become a nit.

Being a nit can be a viable strategy, particularly against spewtards who don't adjust against nut peddlers. However, while nits seldom have really bad days, they also never have spectacular days either. And since they basically never outplay their opponents and rely almost entirely on showdown value they're actually at the mercy of variance to a tremendous degree, particularly in the long term. If you only play your cards, then you're entirely dependent on your cards being good. Because they play so few hands, every hand they play is critical. A couple big suck-outs or coolers in a row is absolutely devastating.

Trying to limit variance any other way than improving your game usually just winds up being counter-productive and increasing your potential to run bad long term.

if LAG is going to be where the money is at, then everybody will start playing lag,
at that point TAG is going to be where the money is at

huh?

the average reg stats over the last 1.5yrs have gone from 12/7 to 13/10

the games get looser as players get better and learn how to exploit and create edges.

Great post, CMAR. That could be a thread on its own.

I beat 2NL for 55BB/100 playing 35/18/2. They see a lot of flops and call a lot of cbets, but you CAN push them out with smart 2- and 3-barreling, and can get such nutty value out of many of them with your good hands that you can still crush the level if you play aware.

You can probably beat 2NL playing 90/40 if you know what you're doing postflop. 2NL is really deep, and that favors the good aggressive player when there are so many fish around.

But 10NL is the first level where you can really teach yourself to play LAG and abuse weaktights. 10NL is infested with weaktights.

At what level/levels? That's a bit surprising.

But what was, say, 25NL like in 2005? What should we expect it to be like in 2013 if the trends continue?

And it's not just regs we're talking about here--the games overall get nittier over time because the fish-to-reg ratio declines.

maybe we are misunderstanding eachother's usage of the word "nittier"...

are you talking in terms of stats or in terms of game softness/wetness or in terms of postflop nittiness...?

I think CMAR has another post coming up (;

good to see some nice poker talk going on

Nah, it's more likely I'm being stupid and not knowing what I'm talking about

Tighter. You sit down at a table full of 13/10s, you'll see fewer flops than you will at a table with a couple 35/3s. The tighter games are tougher to beat, not easier. I just think that if you're good at LAGing you'll make more money at a table full of 13/10, 12/7, 9/6 types as a 20/15 than you will by simply being the 2nd or 3rd best out of nine 13/10 types at the table... that probably makes no sense. Bah.

I wasn't saying the regs are slowly getting nittier tighter; just that the games at any given level are, because the percentage of players who are multitabling regs is slowly increasing. At least, that's my own feeling; I actually have no idea whether it's factually true.

just play the opposite of the table, so switching gears is the answer

This.

Somewhere in the middle of TAG and outright LAG.

There's a tremendous amount of rock/paper/scissors in poker and the standards are in a constant state of flux and always being redefined. Online poker is way, way more aggressive than poker was before the boom. This is obviously most true of 6-max but it's also true of full ring. 20 years ago we'd all have been considered LAGs. Game conditions like we have in the micros or the live low limit donkfests in casinos everywhere were unheard of. Historically speaking, games are still very loose and juicy.

so,
the most important question of them all:

How quick do I need to be at Midstakes or highstakes before the games become unbeatable with all the free information available nowadays?

I think that what Zeth is trying to say is that the fish and bad regs are getting tighter. You don't see nearly so many 30/5/.5 players (outside the micros) as you did 3 years ago. So the game may progress away from trapping and value betting and more towards running them over.

So the future is going to be out-coolering and out-running eachother?

this i can agree with.

i agree the stack off ranges are tighter...but that doesnt mean the games are any less easy to beat...it just means u will beat them in a different way. for instance, i was reviewing some hands from 2007 and early 2008 yesterday and realized that TPGK was the nuts for 200BB pots back then. now a days, the stack off range is much more skewed towards sets+. that doesnt mean u cant pressure regs and make a huge ammount of earn in your redline tho...and any good smartLAG will exploit that.

however, as far as stats are concerned...the regs have loosened up considerably and, as i predicted about 1.5yrs ago when FR was starting to make a turn around, FR will eventually look a lot like 6max did in 2007/e2008 both in terms of stats and aggression.

You all are almost convincing me to play lag, but no: I love tight

Well no.

Poker is probably never going to return to pre-boom levels. We may always fondly look back at the Moneymaker era, but poker, particularly online, has gotten too accessible and ubiquitous. And even pre-Rounders the good players consistently beat the bad players. It wasn't because Stu or Doyle or Scotty or Johnny Chan were out running or out coolering anyone.

So where are we now? Waiting for another boom or in another boom-fase?

Why would anyone wait for anything? I'm making money right now...

*stare*

*blink*

*shrug*

<-- retart

Word.

That's like threatening to foreclose on someone who's homeless. Nothing to lose imo.

That's pretty much what I ran in my foray into 2nl, and I was winning.

I can vouch that this is absolutely correct, and it is the explanation for the 24 buy in downswing that I had in November and December of 2007. I was basically a 1ptbb/100 nut peddling nit that had a run of really bad luck and it devastated my roll. All of the sets and overpairs I was counting on to make money with were losing, and I had no other method of making money to offset the suckouts.

Well done, again, as usual, CMAR.

Good idea.

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