I think you were fine and just wanted you GF to take care of you.





At least that is what I told her.

increases shortrun variance but decreases longrun variance

5-6 days of having to wait on me hand and foot. The girl deserves a medal. Heck.....I'm not pleasant when I am feeling well.

Hmmm.. could you expand on that? This really sounds counter-intuitive to a naive mathematician like myself.

its not actually the longrun variance that decrease, but the perceived effect of variance since your winrate is based more on your play and not the run of cards you get. So your wr stays steadier

In San Francisco? Where do you play live? What stakes? I've never played live but I'd like to some time (at the smallest live stakes possible). If there are other 2p2ers in the area who would want to make a trip to a B&M casino for low stakes NLHE?

For me the idea of B&M NLHE is like playing blackjack or craps in Vegas: I want to do it for amusement value, not because I think it is +EV.

I think they are still riffing on the mugging joke. Playing bigger pots does not decrease your variance.

Thats it, thx

I think every online player should play live from time to time. There are a lot of additional aspects to the game that don't come up in online play. I mean the game was played for decades before the internet even existed.

During the period I had no internet I was a regular at Lucky Chances (you know you're a degenerate when the brush knows your name). But I've played at most of the rooms in the Bay Area, Bay 101 being the notable exception.

I generally play the smallest games in the room. The LCs game is 1-1-2 spread limit - $200 max buy, $200 max bet, $4 bring in - that does a good job of imitating a 1-2 nl game.

I'm pretty busy these days, but other than that its pretty easy to talk me into some pokering.

Instead of the run of cards affecting your results most, the play of your opponents is the dominant random variable.

If you continue to have a big edge in post flop play and run them over all the time then the cards matter less but the style of your opponents play matters more. If you are LAG and all your opponents are LAG then even your perceived variance will shoot way up because you won't be running over them so much. I.e. if you are better than them your redline's slope will go down and the blue line's slope will go up.

BTW, uDevil's win rate calculator is an awesome tool for getting an idea how huge the effect of variance are and how many hands it takes for WR to begin to dominate variance.

PT3 says my stddev/100 hands is 70ptbb. If you plug this deviation, an abysmal losing rate (e.g. 10ptbb/100) and a confidence interval of 95% (2 stddevs) you will see that a player could play tens of thousands of hands and still be a winner with this win rate!

I'm in the south bay and Bay 101 does spread limit but not pot limit or no limit.

I really don't want to play spread limit. If there is a lot of action pre-flop and on the flop then it would seem that turn and river play become a lot more like limit than no-limit. I'd rather have higher variance and lose money playing a game I know (NLHE, PLHE) than play spread limit.

I view live play (for me) as -EV but I want that to be because I have no experience live, not because I'm playing a new game (spread limit).

If there is some place that spreads NLHE or PLHE and if there are a few other interested locals I'd love to do a trip to a casino together. The prospect isn't interesting enough for me to make a longish trek alone.

Don't rule out spread limit imo.

The game at Lucky Chances has a $200 max bi and a $200 max bet. It plays EXACTLY like nl if you're not deepstacked.

Compare to the 2-3-5 game, which is uncapped bi but also a $200 max bet. That plays like nl preflop and to some extent on the flop, then plays like a big LHE game on the turn and river.

The SL games at Garden City are similar in that the max bet is >= BI. They play a little shorter stacked imo, which can be good or bad, depending.

I have heard the SL game at bay101 is the best game in the bay area, but I've never made it out there.

+1 I'm giving them the Mom Look. Is it working?

On another note, can anyone tell me how to combine my PS and FT player names in the Cash Games / Reports tab in HEM?

No HH allowed here, but I thought this was quite amusing.


Full Tilt Poker $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 51337
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $17.29
SB: $10.00
BB: $13.56
UTG: $9.92
Hero (MP): $10.00
CO: $10.54

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is MP with 9 A
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.35, 3 folds, BB raises to $0.60

It's a position raise. I call it.
Hero calls $0.25

Flop: ($1.25) 9 3 A (2 players)

I just got top two pair on the flop, and I want to keep him in the hand. Against your average guy, I'd set a bear trap, hardly bet at all.
Let him walk into it. But KGB's too smart for that. So, what I've got to do is over-bet the pot, make it look like I'm trying to buy it.

BB checks, Hero bets $0.70, BB calls $0.70
My guess is Teddy's on a flush draw.

Turn: ($2.65) 9 (2 players)
There's my money card, nine of hearts. I got a full house. Check's good.
BB checks, Hero checks

Now I hope a club falls and Teddy makes his flush.
That way he'll bet strong, and I'll beat him with my nines full over aces.


River: ($2.65) K (2 players)
BB bets $2.65, Autist has requested TIME,

I want him to think that I'm pondering a call, but all I'm really thinking about is Vegas and the ****ing Mirage. "All right, your 2.65 plus I have another 6.05 to raise you. Um... Yeah, I'm gonna go all in, 'cause I don't think you got the spades".
Hero raises to $8.70 all in

BB calls $6.05
"You are right. I don't have spades."

"I know before the cards are even turned over."


Final Pot: $20.05
BB shows A A (a full house, Aces full of Nines)
Hero shows 9 A (a full house, Nines full of Aces)


And you know what? It wasn't a bad beat.
I wasn't unlucky.
I got outplayed. I got outplayed that time.
But I know I'm good enough to sit at that table.

BBV please. Oh, wait...

Ah, I figured it out. Make an alias combining my player names, right? Got it set.

Ah so. As Chuang Tzu wrote in Cracking the Safe

DAH-DNAH-DAH-DA-DNUH

OMG Autist that's effing hilarious!

the mom look always scares the **** out of me, but I am still going to tell you what's going to happen with Jack

I messed up by not editing the "spades" to "clubs", twice.

You're off the hook. I can live with it in spoiler boxes. Want some cookies?

Yes, please hihi

you are my new hero

Can she resisting pushing the button?



The beautiful, shiny button? The jolly, candy-like button? Will she hold out, folks? Can she hold out?