+1

David Suzuki tours this country in a massive diesel bus - because converting his bus to biodiesel would "cost too much" - doing his part to contribute to warming up this country while telling the rest of us to keep it cold by taking the bus (vastly different buses obviously). Does not compute.

I guess I'll go out and get my own tour bus now.

nuff said.

Yes, that's an answer I would like to get, because really.
I am in such an sick grind mode. Yesterday I played 9 hours and I want to keep going and going.
I want to find a balance where I play 6 hours a day. 3 in the morning (so it will be at night for america), and 3 in the morning so i hit the european nights
In the afternoon I want to focus on school

I also want to play a lot because of rakeback, if I play 6 hours a day, that will mean I play 100K or hands a month, that will be very good for rakeback

not many jellyfish, but good amount of sting rays

I always hated Jellyfish, those bitches just hit you hard and you feel like ****..

Sting rays, what's that?

Why is bitches not censored, and **** is?

Doesn't 2p2 like women?

JH1: *****.

i did back in december but i survived.

I don't know why but I seem to run best during the day.

The games in the day are, on average, nittier than at night. So if you play a pretty aggressive game those games might actually match up better with your style.

or it could just be variance, lol.

Okay lets have an EV problem discussion.

You are in a Las Vegas Casino, and you pay $2.50 to spin a wheel that pays out the following values, with probabilities of each:

$1 at 0.4 prob
$2 at 0.3 prob
$3 at 0.2 prob
$4 at 0.1 prob

For $2.50 you can spin the wheel three times, and you can either take the value of the spin or spin again.

What is the EV for a single spin?

What is the optimal strategy for the series of spins? Is it +EV?

P.S.
I added this because I made a statement about decision theory and how it effects EV. Sorry for this but spent the last week with a Mathematician that specializes in Game Theory, Probability and Decision analysis and we went through about 100 problems.

mpethy are you going to bring Halle back ever? Not that there's anything wrong with your avatar.

LOL such sick river value bets (yes I know I play horrible)


Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 29956
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $59.40
BB: $55.25
Hero (UTG): $50.00
UTG+1: $46.30
MP1: $52.00
MP2: $50.00
CO: $57.60
BTN: $68.15

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with A K
Hero raises to $1.50, UTG+1 calls $1.50, 3 folds, BTN calls $1.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($5.25) 3 8 J (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($5.25) 7 (3 players)
Hero bets $3.50, UTG+1 calls $3.50, BTN folds

River: ($12.25) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $5.50, UTG+1 calls $5.50

yeah, I was just thinking earlier today this joke has probably run its course.

^ Sammy's question

I may have done this completely wrong, but:

$1*0.4 + $2*0.3 + $3*0.2 + $4*0.1 = $2 EV for a single spin.

Therefore, optimal would be to quit when you hit $3 or $4. Odds of totally missing $3 or $4 in 3 spins is 0.7*0.7*0.7 = 34.3%

34.3% of the time you hit $2 or less in 3 spins.
65.7% of the time you hit $3 or more in 3 spins.

42.8% of the time that you hit $2 or less you hit $2.
57.2% of the time that you hit $2 or less you hit $1.

66.7% of the time that you hit $3 or more you hit $3.
33.3% of the time that you hit $3 or more you hit $4.

0.343(0.428*2 + 0.572*1) + 0.657(0.667*3 + 0.333*4)
= 0.343(1.428) + 0.657(3.333)
= 0.490 + 2.190
= 2.68

Therefore this game is slightly +EV if you follow my rules and you should expect a ROI of 7.2%.

There is probably a better way to play if you are planning on doing multiple spins. ie. probably something about stopping if you hit $2 on the second spin to avoid taking a 40% risk on hitting $1 on the 3rd spin. This would make it much more +EV in the long run I think but I'm not sure how to figure it out. The 3rd spin obviously does not rely on whether or not you missed $3-$4 on the 1st and 2nd spins.

(I'm probably way off here and would easily get suckered into this game that is most likely -EV due to my bad math skills)

Brag: I got my C dive expanded in Parallels / Windows.

Beat: Poker tracker no longer runs and I have serious doubts I'll ever be able to figure it out.

Variance: I hate Windows.

To work for a profitable firm. Although I'll probably end up working for the government since they're forcing "bailout" money down the throats of responsible businesses.

Pretty much everything in the new deal expanded the powers of the federal government.

The Kool Aid I'm drinking can be briefly explained here.

Social security seems like a bad idea now because it always was a bad idea. Do you really think the government is saving that money in a box somewhere? No, it's spent immediately. Infact, it's spent before it's even received. We pay off social security with inflation, which means that through social security the government is stealing our money. Hell I'd be better off putting that retirement money in a 2% treasury bill lol.

It's clear that I can't stand to lose.

I've been playing 12/9, do you think its variance or my aggressiveness? What does the crystal ball say?

Aggression, combined with general nittiness of play. You basically get to bully the tables you are on and the nits are too scared to play anything other than the nuts.

If you are on stars, I may have seen you on a couple of my tables. Let's just say that you were probably not getting any cards then...

On a completely different note, I just had a look at my 25NL stats. Average 0.52BB/hand on the button. Me likey.

Preflop stats are meaningless unless they are way off base. eg; like running 20/10/1 or something.

Playing live 3 times a week is really helping my table talk:


Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 30144
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $8.80
UTG: $11.60
MP: $17.65
CO: $10.00
BTN: $21.75
Hero (SB): $16.70

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with 6 6
1 fold, MP calls $0.10, 1 fold, BTN raises to $0.50, Hero calls $0.45, 1 fold, MP calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.60) 3 Q 5 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, BTN bets $0.70, Hero says "do you have top pair?", Hero says "Cause I have a set", Hero says "if I raise now you will call?", Hero raises to $1.90, MP folds, BTN says "nop", BTN folds

Final Pot: $3.00
Hero mucks 6 6
Hero wins $2.90
(Rake: $0.10)

that fold doent make any sense.

He was probaly c-betting with air against two players, like most people do at NL10.

TPGK + 2nd NFD is not, repeat NOT, a strong hand.