Quote:
Originally Posted by MDoranD
Poker Stars $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com
CO: $30.50
BTN: $24.70
SB: $4.25
Hero (BB): $34.85
UTG: $25.00
Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with J T
UTG raises to $1.50, CO calls $1.50, 1 fold, SB raises to $4.25 and is all-in, Hero raises to $34.85 and is all-in,
UTG is an 18/15 with little history
CO is a 20/6 tight passive over 88 hands
SB is 56/31 monkey shortstack
I think i can get away with shoving JTo here profitably
comments are welcome
say we are 40/60 vs the shortstack, co always folds, utg calls with QQ+/AK, (1/4th his open range), which we are 25/75 vs. combined with the shorties range we are ~20%. your equity is lower than this because sometimes u will beat UTG but lose to the shortie.
.75*(((.4*7.25)-(.6*3.75))) + .25*((.20*30.75)-(.80*24.50)) =
-$2.87 EV
CO also might wake up with a monster like AK or QQ sometimes too, seeing how he is 20/6.
problem is u only get 65 cents equity out of the dead money when UTG folds. even when UTG only calls 5% of the time its still gonna overwhelm the 65 cents. rake will make this worse too.
its -EV with a hand like 55 too
(.75 * ((.52 * 7.25) - (.48 * 3.75))) + (.25 * ((.27 * 30.75) - (.73 * 24.50))) =
-$0.92
with TT
(.75 * ((.65 * 7.25) - (.35 * 3.75))) + (.25 * ((.30 * 30.75) - (.7 * 24.50))) =
$0.57
which would still be -EV after rake + CO waking up with QQ + shortie winning sidepot even when u beat UTG
just not enough dead money and we are running into UTG monsters too often
Last edited by Dumuzi; 08-29-2010 at 06:26 PM.