The times you win you get back what you called, so youre risking 16.9 to win 16.9 + 16.9 + 17.95 = 51.75, 16.9/51.75 = 32.66%

thanks but i still think you are wrong in everything else you said

alright consider this. if we know that villain is going to bluff 100% of hands that he bluffs flop with on the turn and river. this is the BEST case scenario for the A3. how often does he need to be bluffing flop in order to call down.

obv flop is still a call because it's super dry and alot of ppl bluf once give up, but in that case turn is an EZ fold

Im sensing you'll be calling down a lot lighter now you know you only have to be good 1 in 3 facing a PSB on the river

to the people laughing at the A3 calldown... are you folding AA? people arent check/raising 9x there... hell... people dont even do that **** at 50nl

not saying i make the calldown against unknowns or even most regs... but sometimes it definitely needs to be done with A3 here

yes A3=AA on river

you are a station imo if you regularly call down light against unknowns like this.

i think i'm folding turn with AA (and A3)

At 25NL vs a straightfoward TAG they are virtually the same hand.

against a standard 50nl player they are essentially the same... they dont c/r underpairs and will rarely have an overpair... also they dont do it with 9x... so that leaves sets/Tx in their range that beats us... that means A3 isnt far off from AA

and like i said... i will rarely make the call down... has to be a special circumstance

I am talking about a unknown villain.

is it okay to call the turn and fold the river in the A3 hand? basically is it best to just fold the turn or just callboth the turn and river?

Bare in mind at no point have I said its a good call or that Id make it myself against an unknown, I'm merely playing devils advocate giving and reasonable explanation for why you might make this calldown. I think its actually very close on the river.

Edit: I think its close if we have the knowledge that Gis is a TAG who will take typical uNL lines.

i have seen guys try a c/r on the flop and fire the turn then time down a bit and just give up on river blanks before

lol what, if you call the turn you have to snap river since one of the best river cards came for your hand.

Folding turn or calling turn and folding river are both OK imo, the kind of semi bluff hands that will barrel this turn will typically have 25-35% equity against A3.

Don't call turn and fold river.

This is why the turn call & river call are generally bad, and we have to consider the EV of calling all streets as a whole, rather than by street by street.

It is a reverse implied odds question.

this is just plain faulty logic

if villains bluffing frequency plummets on the river regardless of what falls, then it doesn't matter

any time you are talkin about a super polarized spot the only thing that matters is reads - cuz it all just comes down to how much nuts vs air you feel this particular guy has

some guys hardly ever bluff

some guys stab once or twice a bunch but rarely fire that big bet bluff

some guys unload the clip kinda often

you prob have a vague immediate sense of how far you feel good about goin with this thing right when he checkraises the flop

if the guy is unknown AA doesnt totally equally A3 cuz a fish could think he is trapping with KK/QQ and also might just spaz and do this with a weird hand like 55

given the guy is unknown there is a good chance he is a weak player since i see all the same regs every day in my games

why are we assuming that he's semibluffing turn?

this is what i was trying to say earlier. you need to to be bluffing BOTH turn and river with near 50% frequency to make a calldown good on turn

You call down, seen the c/r was a set on the dry board. Make note. Barrel the living crap out of them when they check call accordingly.

Because semi bluffs are part of his range on the turn.

^this. I have people who have c/r flop, then fired out 2/3pot and then just gave up on river.

As skraper implied, your typical 25NLer's bluffing frequencies drop massively when theyre faced with shoving 70bbs in on the river