Quote:
Originally Posted by d7o1d1s0
I'm sure it's obvious to everyone, but the smaller the number of hands the more the odds should approach 1:1. Taking a line intended for 250k hands and suggesting it for 150k hands is quite clearly unfair.
Did you make some variance calculations based on my perceived winrate of 2bb/100 and came to the conclusion that 5:1 for 150k is clearly unfair? In fact using the variance calculator on pokerdope.com I get:
So in other words assuming these parameters I have a 2.5% chance (check 95% confidence interval) of achieving a winrate of 6.85bb+/100. So my chance of making 6bb+/100 is clearly well under 5%. Now to break even with 1:5 odds we all know that I need just over 16% chance of making it. So I am a bit confused what calculations you used to arrive to the conclusion that 6bb/100 at 5:1 for 150k hands is "clearly unfair". In fact from the same picture we can see that with 15% probability (check 70% confidence interval) I can do 4.43bb+/100, so that would be the fair target for 150k hands with 5:1 odds. Btw for 250k hands the 2.5% probability is 5.75bb+/100, so not a big diffence.
Also one should ask the question whether you would rather do this bet vs someone with a longterm 2bb winrate who plays on average 100k hands a month or vs someone who only plays poker part time and plays 20k hands a months. In my opinion the increased variance because of less hands is more than offset by me having to play almost 4 times my normal volume, which is in itself a challenge for me (there is no way I can do 250k hands in 2.5 months).
Obviously people can have different opinions as to whether it a good or bad bet, but I question your motives for making such a post given that I am pretty sure you never intended to take the other side. I thought it was a fun challenge for me and a bit of change from the daily grind but it was always a big ask to find $200k to take the other side, so I doubt it will happen anyway whether I do it over 250k or 150k hands.