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***Official 2009 Micro Stakes FR Full Tilt Regulars Thread*** ***Official 2009 Micro Stakes FR Full Tilt Regulars Thread***

07-06-2009 , 12:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pele02
By looking at the EV line you are only thinking short term, over the long run it will even out.

Hey wtf I lost a stack yesterday when I got it in with 95% equity, but I know in the long run I will win a stack too in the same way when my KK rivers a K against someones AA. Even if you are a 95% fav to win the pot, there is still those 5% where you don't.
While I like what you're saying here, this is incorrect.

If you run 20 BI below EV for a period of time, you can expect only to run 0 EV from that point on, ultimately making you -20 BI in EV over the long run.

This goes back to the gambler's fallacy.
07-06-2009 , 12:33 PM
a grind of 6.5 hour, pfiewh... Totally break even, but believe me when I say thats one hell of an accomplisment
07-06-2009 , 12:58 PM
Ug. AKSpartan I can totally commiserate. I'm going through an unbelievably bad run. My bankroll is just plummeting. This is the first time I've seen the ugly side of variance for an extended period of time. I just wonder when it will end...

Last night I played a long roller coaster session. Finally got back to even and right before I was gonna call it a night AA < KK and then I got owned by a 40/20 who cracked my aces. I pulled an mpeth and broke my mouse. I regretted it this morning when I had to do my report for work with the stupid touchpad

This run has made me want to quit poker. Think I'm gonna move back to 25 for a bit.
07-06-2009 , 01:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AKSpartan
While I like what you're saying here, this is incorrect.

If you run 20 BI below EV for a period of time, you can expect only to run 0 EV from that point on, ultimately making you -20 BI in EV over the long run.

This goes back to the gambler's fallacy.
True.
07-06-2009 , 01:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by EdmontonRounder
I may or may not have been steaming at that point
Saw 2 droooolers a week or so ago @ 50NL, 1 had $500, the other had $300.

... yep... GOOOOOODDDD for them. I feel your pain, Rounder...

and OF course, I got none of it!

Last edited by Vandergata; 07-06-2009 at 01:40 PM. Reason: more whining
07-06-2009 , 03:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Equus asinus
Ug. AKSpartan I can totally commiserate. I'm going through an unbelievably bad run. My bankroll is just plummeting. This is the first time I've seen the ugly side of variance for an extended period of time. I just wonder when it will end...

Last night I played a long roller coaster session. Finally got back to even and right before I was gonna call it a night AA < KK and then I got owned by a 40/20 who cracked my aces. I pulled an mpeth and broke my mouse. I regretted it this morning when I had to do my report for work with the stupid touchpad

This run has made me want to quit poker. Think I'm gonna move back to 25 for a bit.
yea im in the same boat right now too. not sure what im going to do.
07-06-2009 , 03:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AKSpartan
While I like what you're saying here, this is incorrect.

If you run 20 BI below EV for a period of time, you can expect only to run 0 EV from that point on, ultimately making you -20 BI in EV over the long run.

This goes back to the gambler's fallacy.
I am going to say your wrong on that one AK, while I understand you can only expect to run at 0 EV from a certain point on, if you are 20 BIs below EV pure odds will pretty much bring you back to even over the long haul. You HAVE to suck out on someone at some point. Whether or not you think it will happen you will start hitting on people. Maybe you will be down set to set in a big pot and smack quads. Unlikely things have to happen sometimes and you will be on the good side of them at some point. Stay strong you will get them back.
07-06-2009 , 03:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smoking Dough
yea im in the same boat right now too. not sure what im going to do.
I think I saw you for a sec at a table last night. Saw your SN and shrute someone who I think is ITT. I decided that table sucked and swam away

Guess we have no choice but to suck it up haha. I think I'm gonna drop down for a bit and try to take some blinds off 25 nl nits.
07-06-2009 , 04:58 PM
We should create a run bad support group.
07-06-2009 , 05:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AKSpartan
We should create a run bad support group.
LOL, think this is already it
07-06-2009 , 06:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Equus asinus
LOL, think this is already it
lol title should be changed to official 2009 micro stakes FR Full Tilt Run Badders Thread.
All you run gooders get your own thread. lol
07-06-2009 , 07:23 PM
LOL That thread wouldn't need to be bumped ever but it would be pretty depressing.

We should probably go with something more along the lines of, "poast hear for god mode activation!"
07-06-2009 , 07:29 PM
"post here if shortstackers run like god vs you"
07-06-2009 , 07:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smoking Dough
"post here if shortstackers run like god vs you"
I got eaten allive by shortstackers in my session this weekend. They doubled up like 6x with AA or KK against me, then I got scared and started folding everything. Yuck.
07-06-2009 , 07:54 PM
2+2 PLO2 sick table running right now starring toedder, joopjan imfrosweden, la ultima cerveca and myself (just look in the list, 2 PLO2 tables)
some sick cold 5betting action going on
07-06-2009 , 08:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JLBorloo
2+2 PLO2 sick table running right now starring toedder, joopjan imfrosweden, la ultima cerveca and myself (just look in the list, 2 PLO2 tables)
some sick cold 5betting action going on
Table name?

Edit: Nevermind, found it. #3 on waiting list lol
07-06-2009 , 08:06 PM
gunther and milorie
07-06-2009 , 08:06 PM
Umm, I run soooo bad
07-06-2009 , 08:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
I had told myself when I was down 14 buy ins that I wasn't quitting until I was up two buy ins.
LOL. I tend to do that, too. Worst has been down 18 buyins in a single session. Things like FH rivered by straight flush after 200BB all in on the Turn.

Just released today: Deuces Cracked vid "Eightfold Path to Poker Enlightenment", Ep 5: Quitting: when to quit, how to make quitting easier, the importance of practicing quitting.
07-06-2009 , 08:26 PM
FTR, I have a chat ban.
07-06-2009 , 08:34 PM
Pretty sure I had 4 pair there? WTF
07-06-2009 , 08:43 PM
ohh i wanna play. what's the password?
07-06-2009 , 08:51 PM
sup bro
07-06-2009 , 09:00 PM
"ive got the math rights, the solution equals 4"
07-06-2009 , 09:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Teddie
Get A's when villain holds AKo imo.




Party Poker $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

(SB): $8.32
AKspartn (BB): $25.00
(UTG): $28.98
(UTG+1): $29.49
(MP1): $28.62
(MP2): $8.40
(CO): $18.33
Hero (BTN): $25.00

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with A A
5 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, 1 fold, AKspartn raises to $3.75, Hero raises to $7.15, AKspartn raises to $25, Hero calls $17.85 all in

Flop: 3 9 7

Turn: 6

River: T

Final Pot: $50.10
AKspartn shows K A
Hero shows A A
Hero wins $47.60
(Rake: $2.50)


I was only going through some hands earlier and realised it. Makes my bet a bit easier to win.
This hand is still tilting me!

      
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