Quote:
Originally Posted by jasons0147
What do you want to bet that those guys that have 75%-85% fold to 3bet numbers are 4betting like mad men? Look into it, seriously, its shocking. Oh and dont balance untill you get to 5/10, look into it, seriously, its shocking.
You've been making some pretty good points, but I look at it this way: My long term win rate with small pocket pairs (22-66) is 37bb/100 hands. In the situations I choose to 3 bet them to defend my blinds (villain on an apparent steal, has a high ats and a high fold to 3 bet) my win rate with 22-66 is 73bb/100 hands.
When i cold call small pockets out of the blinds (as i will do if the villain is a nit or has a very tight<15% ats, my win rate is -12bb/100. This is far better than folding, but the fact that it is still negative illustrates just how ****ty it is to be oop against a tag with a strong range when you have a hand that is going to hate about 88% of all flops.
I don't know poker theory for ****, but I am pretty good at poker empiricism. For instance, I know Baluga Whale advocates a fold or 4 bet strategy with rare calls when facing a 3 bet. But I fold 48%, call 34% and 4 bet 18%, and I show a 120bb/100 hand profit calling 3 bets whereas most of the Tags I see following Baluga are losing about 100bb/100. This is not a knock on Baluga's theory, but on its application by fallible people at the tables. Somebody told me my 3 strategy of reacting to 3 bets is exploitable. My response was, "ldo, and I'll start worrying about that when they actually start exploiting it." In a vacuum, in theory, it may be better to flat from the blinds with small pockets. In practice, at the tables, my win rate 3 betting them in appropriate spots is twice what it is in other situations.