I don't like this generalization. There are times when 3betting those hands is fine, and when flatting is fine and when folding is fine.

Yeah, I think this is when these hands should be 3 bet. Basically because they are too good to fold and too bad to call.

In other news:

I am in the midst of the worst downswing I have had in 15+ months. EV wise, I am at expectation, but that is the only thing that is going right.

Some recent highlights:

1. I played 5700 hands last night and was dealt AK 84 times. I flopped top pair or better...five times.

2. I was dealt AQ 79 times last night, and flopped TP+...twice.

3. In my last 25,000 hands, my W$SD with AA is...45%. With KK: 27%

4. The thing that is really killing me, though, is flopping badly in the blinds. My W$WSF for the last 25k hands out of the blinds is 12%, down from 32% in my big sample. This has increased my loss rates from the blinds to -21bb/100 and -44bb/100 in the last 25k hands.

I'm not (only) complaining. There are four lessons that I have taken from this downswing and the careful monitoring of my stats I have done during it:

a. It is tough, sometimes impossible, to post a win when the cards have just decided to merrily **** you up the butt. Parts of this game are simply beyond your control.

b. Analyzing your stats in detail works wonders for your morale during a downswing. I'm looking through my last 25k hands, and, overall, I am very happy with the way I am playing. I've spewed off a few buy ins, but I am always spewing off a few buy ins in 25k hands. But if I weren't fully conversant with my long term stats, I might be tempted to start tinkering with what I know is a winning strategy at $100. Last night I played some of my best poker ever, and finished up $15 after 5700 hands. In looking for explanations for this, I found a lot of the run bad that I was unaware of that I described above. Knowing what went wrong is a great confidence booster.

c. The button ROCKS. When you have forgotten how to flop top pair, you have to look for other ways to win $$. I have upped my ATS during the downswing and it has definitely helped me keep it from being worse.

d. Lastly, a note about villains that I have discovered in my stats and that is corroborated in stats I have reviewed for other people. My long term flop continuation betting % is 57%, with a 47% success rate. During my downswing I have increased my c-betting % to 67%, and my success rate has gone up to 56%. In analyzing stats for other people, I have noticed that this holds true within this range of c-betting %--the more you c-bet, the more people fold. This is counter-intuitive; you would think that if you are c-betting less, people will take them more seriously and fold to a higher % of them. But between a c-betting % of 47% and 67%, the reverse seems true. This indicates to me that villains in general are scared to play pots against aggressive c-bettors. I'm going to keep an eye on this as I review stats for other people, but it certainly looks like this is what is going on. I am morally certain that there is a point where this would stop--that if you c-bet 90 or 100%, your success rate would plummet. I'm very interested in trying to figure out at what point this relationship changes, so if your flop c-bet % is above 67% and you are willing to pm me or post your flop c-bet% and success rate, I'd appreciate it.

mpethy:
d. is interesting. I have always thought I experienced something like this, but never really looked at it. I usually play 8-10 tables, and while I will be around 18/14 overall, I will have tables that I am 5/5 and others that are 32/21. What I notice is that I don't seem to get a lot more play on tables I am laggy at, but people still play back at me on tables I have been a speed bump on. Like I decide that "Hey I am a 5/5, I can steal this pot...dang"
Or "Someone has to start playing against me sometime...anyone, anyone..."

Of course these could be self selecting stats, as there may be a reason beyond cards that I have open/tighten my game.

Haven't posted on here in a lil bit been pretty busy, but does anyone know if FTP player to player transfers are down? Tried to transfer 80 bucks to another player and it has been stuck there for about an hour now. Normally it goes through within 2 minutes and if not has kicked it out by now with a reason as to why. Any help withthis would be appreciated

Wow after over an hour lol it goes through right when I send this message.

A couple thoughts:

b. is huge! Last thing you want to do is go mucking about with a solid game when its on a downer.

RE: cbets, a couple things.

If you're only cbetting 47% is it possible you're only cbetting when your hand has their range crushed? ie, are you forgoing profitable cbeting spots where your hand < your range? or cbeting too much when your hand = their range?

And also I've found that cbet sizing has a larger than expected impact on effectiveness. The only time I've had a positive redline is when I was mucking about in 2nl and 5nl and hitting "pot" for every cbet. 2nl and 5nl players FOLDING?!?!?? I know, right! And while my redline isn't positive, I've definitely noticed the effect up through 25nl. Do you regularly account for a player's standard cbet sizing when evaluation its effectivness?

How do I find my cbetting success with tracker?

You don't, you have to buy HEM

<----waiting for PT rep to come in and bash me!!!

Done with a 5h30 session for 4 bi profit after breaking even for 4 hours

I mean I can think of a roundabout way, but that would be a nice stat to have.

In my career, I am a 57% flop c-bettor. 47% is my long term success rate.

I used 47% as the lower boundary of the range in which c-betting% directly correlates with success% because I have analyzed stats for a few players who were that low, and, in general, their success rate was slightly lower than mine at 57%. Sorry for the confusion.

I absolutely agree with c-bet sizing also correlating to success. I have not studied it, but I would be surprised if my 1/2 pot c-bets are profitable. They seem to always be getting raised, and if not raised, called. I've seen this in other people's stats, too. By contrast, my 3/4 pot c-bets usually work and are definitely profitable, as are my 2/3 pot c-bets. But I suspect that my 1/2 pot c-bets are dragging down my profitability.

Yeah, in the full stats reviews I do for people who come to me directly, we spend at least an hour looking at c-betting, sizing, success and profitability. There's not time for me to go into this with the leak finder folks.

sesh stats or it didn't happen!

I have a CBet success stat in PT3.

http://www.pokertracker.com/repository/statistics.php

search for: suc

meh, I'll just keep stacking off to your sets with overpairs and you'll be fine.

you ran hot there in the end

For both NL25 and NL50 I have around 72% flop cbet and around 50% success.

That was the only stack I got last night and I really wish it had been someone else's.

For the other folks reading: I flatted a 3 bet IP with JJ and spiked top set. Not much cb coulda done to get away from his hand. One of us played his hand correctly and one of us misread the situation, and the results don't indicate which was which.

today I had 70 and 41 success

for the month 65 and 49 success

overall 60 and 49 success

BTW how do you define success? If I cbet with top set a fold is not really what I want to see.

mpethy, what is your fold to cbet% IP/OP?

Just checked my lifetime stats at 10NL. (this includes previous failed shots before my current attempt). My game has evolved since then.

My best position is the button where I am like 55bb/100.
My next is middle position. I'm about 6bb/100

Granted I'm playing 6m, but I have found that my cbets are less successful on FT than Stars. In addition, what is your turn cbet%? How often do you c/r flops and turns?

Imho, you can't look at cbet% in a vacuum.

but it's still a cbet success