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Originally Posted by mpethybridge
Well, I wouldn't be bet/folding the whole way if ... a heart comes
No, I wouldn't be either, I was probably unclear. I think this type of villain will call another bet if a heart falls with a much wider range (and a range that is ahead of us, fewer better hands fold now) than if an ace falls. Very possibly wrong though, it's a thin spot. With a heart obv all middle pair+heart calls again, Kx hands call again because i haz top pair, etc.
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In my opinion, we don't like an ace on the turn because he has a lot of ragged suited aces in his cold calling range. The AhXh hands definitely call us on the flop. All AJ combos are in his preflop range, and that hand is definitely peeling. QT combos are in his range and an ace would hit them. Probably we can assume that some small fraction of his Ax combos float us on a call/bluff.
Yeah I was thinking it would be helpful to have some sense of what his standards for continuing to a cbet are. If he's floating boards with a lot of Ax then it's not a good card, but I think it's more likely his range hates the A and we can bet it. Boards like this mess with my (admittedly poor) sense of combinatorics though.
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All of that combines to make the ace a pretty ****ty card for us. If we bet it, we are turning our hand into a bluff, and i think we have more showdown value than bluff value on a suited and straighted board against a loose passive who calls preflop with speculative hands a lot.
Agreed re: turning our hand into a bluff, but I don't think that's a big problem. As a guess I'd say vs his range on the flop our bet is ~40/35/25% dead money/value/bluff, an ace turn makes it ~10/30/60% dead money/value/bluff. I think there's also some value in betting an ace turn to protect our hand on the river (not sure how profitable bluff-catching is here, someone once went through my DB and told me to stop calling river bets when I'm only ahead of a bluff
), it encourages him to just check back bricks at least some of the time because of board strength.
But yeah it's a small pot, the board sucks, and getting bluffed sometimes on the turn isn't the end of the world so I don't really hate c/f.
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But 1a's post raises an interesting point; it may be worth considering treating the Ah as a good card for us. I'm not sure, because it completes the flush. I'm gonna think about this for a while, which really makes me wish I had the ambition to get good at combinatorics.
Yeah it's the scariest card in the deck for all of his Kx hands, and probably the only heart I'd bet at.
sry for strat chat on