Quote:
Originally Posted by 1a2a3a
mpethy, vimes, why are we afraid of an A on the turn? QT sure, but really you think he floats flop with non- Ax? If we're still bet/folding all the way what difference does it make?
Well, I wouldn't be bet/folding the whole way if an ace or a heart comes, I'll be check/folding the turn and check/calling or folding the river. Once one of those cards falls, this hand goes into the category of "there are too many ways he can be ahead of us."
In my opinion, we don't like an ace on the turn because he has a lot of ragged suited aces in his cold calling range. The AhXh hands definitely call us on the flop. All AJ combos are in his preflop range, and that hand is definitely peeling. QT combos are in his range and an ace would hit them. Probably we can assume that some small fraction of his Ax combos float us on a call/bluff.
All of that combines to make the ace a pretty ****ty card for us. If we bet it, we are turning our hand into a bluff, and i think we have more showdown value than bluff value on a suited and straighted board against a loose passive who calls preflop with speculative hands a lot. The hands that would fold to a bet when the ace comes are mostly hands that are behind us; the only hands we can hope to fold out are his kings, and we won't be able to fold all of those. Conversely, the hands that beat us are all the hands that are going to bet the ace if we check. We'll get bluffed sometimes, too, but getting bluffed off a 10bb pot holding middle pair is a trivial concern. especially with a villain whose aggression factor is only 2.0--he's not bluffing us all that often.
Actually, the comment I like best in this discussion is the OP coming back in and saying that this is a fold preflop until we have a read.
But 1a's post raises an interesting point; it may be worth considering treating the Ah as a good card for us. I'm not sure, because it completes the flush. I'm gonna think about this for a while, which really makes me wish I had the ambition to get good at combinatorics.