That's actually a tough one. He's twice as likely to have the K as the 5, but I have no idea how to weight bluffing the scare card.

I think I play it the same.



Don't think of big stacks as being good. It means either they got it in good or they spewed like crazy, and you can't tell which from the stack alone.

I agree that you can't tell much from stack size alone and unfortunately I didn't have a solid enough read on him to figure out if he luckboxed most of his stack or he was actually exploiting his image and trapping people.

Yeah, it just felt like it would be -EV overall with 2 out of 3 options chopping or crushing. You are right though, the really big question is how to weigh bluffing.

I couldn't help coming to the conclusion that I don't need to take a really thin spot for my stack when I've put in less than 10% of it so far. I'm starting to learn patience and the art of waiting for spots that don't seem as thin against the fishies.

So who here is BE or losing for several months now, and losing with flushes, straights and sets all over the place, besides me? Misery needs company

Hi

Kurt, can you imagine being on the exact opposite of our luck situation? I just can't see myself being lucky for several months straight

Wanna do a sweat sometime?

what apps do i need. Do i need a microphone?

this really doesn't tell you anything?
never had a super bad player on your table having all the luck of the world?

i would make the call,
to bad i lose against AA

A headset would be handy, yes, because then we could use Skype and voice chat. Otherwise we could just use TeamViewer or Mikogo and talk in AIM.

going to download teamviewer and check it out, i dont have a micro tough :|

np about the mic.

I've got to write my CoW this weekend. Might as well take a break at some point and sweat some poker. Shoot me a PM.

Yeah this was me in Dec and Jan. Not losing with my hands a lot more than I would expect but not hitting very many winners either. Sets not getting paid off was the biggest problem. That and the fact that I was way down on hitting the # of sets I should have.

Don't know how much longer it will continue as I won't be playing again until mid April.

So, as some of you know I am an accountant that does taxes for a living. Now we deal a lot with the public and see our fair share of non-rocket scientists during the year. Today I think we took the word moron to a new level.

A lady walks in 20 minutes late, of course, for an appointment. After some excuses we finaly get started and with all new client we ask them to bring a copy of last years return. It makes it easier to get names/social security numbers etc. Plus it gives us an idea of what questions we should be asking. It's amazing how things don't change for people year to year.

Well, she doesn't have last years return, but she gives me a copy of 2006. So I get her basic info in and I'm ready to get started on the return proper. So I ask her for her 2008 information. She says "I don't have anything else."

"The 2006 return is all you have?"

"Yes"

"Do you have any income for the year?"

"Oh, yeah. My broker said he would send it to me, but I haven't got anything"

"Well, I can't prepare a return until you have your infomation for 2008."

"Well, I don't know when I'm going to get the stuff from my broker, can't you just make something up based on 2006, its pretty much the same."

"Um, no."

/appointment

Not a FT reg anymore but maybe it would be better (lol reg war metagame?) if I was not. Pheisar....Kurt....I would do a sweat session with either of you if you were willing.

I will do some sweats with you guys, just installed teamviewer (still need to check it out how it works, no clue) but im leaving shortly, so... tonight probably im running one

I don't even play at FTP, but i will if i get rb (please ONE TIME)... and im tired of the PS reg.. lol

I'd be down for 25NL/50NL sweats too. PM me if interested, guys. I'm on holidays atm, have lots of time, don't have a set schedule ...

I'm interested in sweats also.

Does xxWaterFall21xx post here?

Cool, let's get in touch ... check your PMs

So I have done some number crunching wrt to the new higher iron man levels Full Tilt added for +18 months in Iron Man.

I'll be in month 19 in april:

400 medals for making iron
100 bonus medals in lieu of the freeroll
40 bonus medals for +500 point days (my average)

540 bonus medals per month.

a $600 bonus costs 3000 points, six months with a bit left over.

You also get the mid year iron man bonus, $600 if you make iron every month, which I usually do.

I play between 45 and 50k hands per month, call it 285,000 hands in 6 months.

The Iron man program $1200 in bonuses will be yielding an extra .42ptbb/100 on my win rate.

Rakeback adds another $365/month x 6 mos = $2190, or .77ptbb/100

Rakeback + Iron Man bonuses = 1.19ptbb/100 on my win rate (lol, which doubles my WR ).

It looks like my rake for that period playing only $50 would be about $9700. Rakeback plus iron man seems to be about $3390, which works out to be >33% discount on rake.

I was seriously considering moving to Stars, but the improvement to the iron man program is making me think I ought to stay at FT.

Thoughts? Anybody detect a flaw in the lawyer math above?

Sounds pretty cool matt. I need to get my ass in gear and start hitting Iron every month, doesn't help that my gfx card just died, I resusatated it a few times but it died for good 2 days ago, just bought a new comp....budgetted myself seen as I only play poker and no games these days.

On laptop atm which was again a budget laptop so I can't run my big monitor off it, instead I playing 1xNL100 deep tables lol, upswing for the win please.

Just taking my first steps into NL100 on tilt and it seems like its reg infested thus far.

Only thing I could come up with is: Have you figured in the rake reduction that comes with buying the bonuses? Don't think it would make much of a difference anyway, but still.
Also, there's the FT points that further add to your total value. I think they're not worth much, but even figuring in the rake reduction they do have value, either if you buy stuff in the FT store (you wanted anyway) or if you sell your points (don't know anything about that).
I haven't done the math on the new program yet, but I'm planning on doing some extensive calcs myself (might maybe code and come up with some sort of "loyalty program evaluator" application).

Jim McManus is weak imo



Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 58876
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

betganij_ps (CO): $9.25
IGotLucky27 (BTN): $46.80
Jim McManus (SB): $52.90
willygj (BB): $21.15
Hero (UTG): $54.00
harakiri 22 (MP): $52.65

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with Q Q
Hero raises to $1.75, 3 folds, Jim McManus calls $1.50, willygj calls $1.25

Flop: ($5.25) 5 4 5 (3 players)
Jim McManus checks, willygj checks, Hero bets $3.75, Jim McManus calls $3.75, willygj folds

Turn: ($12.75) 4 (2 players)
Jim McManus checks, Hero bets $9.50, Jim McManus folds

Final Pot: $12.75
Hero wins $12.15
(Rake: $0.60)

Man, I wanted to take a little nap

It's 2 o clock at night now.....

feels weird! but ready to grind, almost, ready

Bet this turn pretty hard right?
Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 59108
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $68.10
BB: $48.75
UTG: $98.65
UTG+1: $50.00
Hero (MP1): $58.35
MP2: $100.00
CO: $46.15
BTN: $25.65

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP1 with 6 6
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, 1 fold, CO calls $1.75, BTN calls $1.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($6.00) 6 4 5 (3 players)
Hero bets $4.50, CO calls $4.50, BTN calls $4.50

Turn: ($19.50) Q (3 players)
Hero bets $16

yeah it's okay to bet hard there

I got a silly problem:

My IRON MAN status!!

people see I am Iron man, SO -EV !!!