Quote:
Originally Posted by KurtSF
A couple thoughts:
b. is huge! Last thing you want to do is go mucking about with a solid game when its on a downer.
RE: cbets, a couple things.
If you're only cbetting 47% is it possible you're only cbetting when your hand has their range crushed? ie, are you forgoing profitable cbeting spots where your hand < your range? or cbeting too much when your hand = their range?
And also I've found that cbet sizing has a larger than expected impact on effectiveness. The only time I've had a positive redline is when I was mucking about in 2nl and 5nl and hitting "pot" for every cbet. 2nl and 5nl players FOLDING?!?!?? I know, right! And while my redline isn't positive, I've definitely noticed the effect up through 25nl. Do you regularly account for a player's standard cbet sizing when evaluation its effectivness?
In my career, I am a
57% flop c-bettor. 47% is my long term success rate.
I used 47% as the lower boundary of the range in which c-betting% directly correlates with success% because I have analyzed stats for a few players who were that low, and, in general, their success rate was slightly lower than mine at 57%. Sorry for the confusion.
I absolutely agree with c-bet sizing also correlating to success. I have not studied it, but I would be surprised if my 1/2 pot c-bets are profitable. They seem to always be getting raised, and if not raised, called. I've seen this in other people's stats, too. By contrast, my 3/4 pot c-bets usually work and are definitely profitable, as are my 2/3 pot c-bets. But I suspect that my 1/2 pot c-bets are dragging down my profitability.
Yeah, in the full stats reviews I do for people who come to me directly, we spend at least an hour looking at c-betting, sizing, success and profitability. There's not time for me to go into this with the leak finder folks.