Srsly I lost last month mabe 6+ BI when I was a 90% favorite on the turn so nothing I can do as pray to hit my 10% miracles

Selective memory ftl.

I rly do not to whine about this spots b/c it is all part of the game and so on but the beats I have to handle with esp in October was beyond ******ed.

Haha, this sure isn't hard.

Yeah I thought about that, might do this one.

I still haven't written mine... guess it will be more like a Carpal Tunnel post.

That would be rly cool. I am always impressed from them. Even I think for most of us (or at least for me) your style is not to handle

I remember one of these too. I was struck with a bit of FPS and deep limped (like the third limper) with pocket As. A few folds after that and got a raiser who puts in a decent sized raise. Then the two limpers call and I'm starting to drool all over my keyboard. I then put in a huge 3bet. Original raiser calls! I do a little dance as the two original limpers fold and I've got pocket As with an SPR of about 1 against a single opponent. Then comes the flop and I put in a ****** bet of like 1/5 pot into a very safe looking board. Opponent shoves and I call to see his pocket Ks. With the dead money, this will be my biggest score yet.

I'm sure you all can guess what the turn card was.

How the **** is it possible for me to run way below EV every month? None of you have any idea how much luck factors into this game. No ****ing clue.

nice blanket statement AKs...I am sure you know exactly what everyone here knows/thinks.

Sammy, is this a brilliant level or are you actually analyzing a comment I obviously made because I am venting because I am on massive ****ing life tilt right now?

first:
poker = life. Life may effect poker but don't let poker effect life. Its all one long session until we die.

second:
some of us know all about variance and have experience BOTH sides of it. Some here don't understand the actual effects of it, but we all do appreciate it. While I understand you are going through a tough spot, don't insult us and think WE don't understand something.

Hey AK, if you want to keep playing, consider not looking at AIEV for a while if it's gonna try you bat**** insane. Sucks to run bad, but do everything you can to stay sane.

*** Not a level *******

I have no idea what you are talking about with your first part of your post. I rely on my poker winnings as income up at school. It is impossible for poker to not affect my life.

I have only experienced one side of variance (according to my EV line, which is not a perfect indicator of expectation). My EV line, which is grossly far from my winnings line, only describes half of the crap I've been going through recently. I have run significantly below EV for the past six months (all poker I've played this year). Every month it's a "new beginning," but nothing changes. This isn't "ZOMG I ran bad this week or even this month," it's "Holy **** I think I might have perma-runbad."

"Ignoring" one's EV line is ridiculous and impossible. "Hey honey, these *******s have been mugging me once a week and steal half of my paycheck every time it happens!" - "That's awful. Let's just pretend it isn't happening!"

You can't ignore it. Your EV line is just a summary of how you've run, but you can see it for yourself when you play: every time you win a flip, every time you get two-outed for two stacks, every time you stack off versus an underpair and they get there. It is impossible to ignore.

Whats happening is that as a winning player you are not putting money in when you are bad so you are not able to catch up nearly as often. You put money in 10 times with 30% equity you catch up how often? You put money in 100 times with 70% equity they catch up how often?

Thats why a winning player will not be above EV.

most regs experienced the plus side of EV when they started out in poker and moved quickly through the ranks. When we started a lot of us had weakish games, made some money and thought "hey I like this, I can make some monies." then we start to learn. Very few people got their balls kicked in and thought "hey, I like this..etc." There is a lot more to running good than EV..and people don't realize this. Running good could be that you pick up AA after stealing the last 3 pots and someone makes a stand with AJ...or just getting action on your good hands. This morning session I "thought" that everyone was playing back at me, as I had to bet/fold PF sooo much, then sure enough every-time I got top of my range I got a walk.

3 times on average for a loss of $0.40 on the dollar for you

30 times on average for a loss of $0.40 on the dollar for them

I highly recommend writing them of as incompetent and assuming it will show up in 12 weeks. That way you will be thrilled when it actually shows up in only 4. Worked like a charm for me!

Im probably weak .. but im +EV ..

My hands seem to hold up when i get my monies in lately .. but i tend to be a big favourite when it does ..

I dont often play for stacks with draws unless its against an aggro player who is less likely to have anything and call ..

Trying to get tighter players to fold their over pair with a draw tends to burn me money.

Couple that with not paying off passive players when you know your beat .. and just play a lot of drawings hands IP and let other make the mistakes post flop.

I may only play the quarters at the moment .. but a simple style work well enough for me.

Maybe it's time to find another source of income while at school?

I'm not kidding. It's well known that one can run bad longer than thought humanly possible.

that's what i did after they took 3-4 months to ship a ****ing book to me. now i should be getting my bathrobe on thursday after ordering only a week or so ago

Do you have any idea how irritating comments like this are? If poker weren't my best option, I wouldn't be playing.

In my experience so far (one term in school with a job I didn't give a **** about, one term in school with a job I did give a **** about and two terms of school unemployed), having a "regular" job is ------EV with regards to your academic performance and overall enjoyment of consciousness.

While obviously not for everyone (and obviously not going to comment regarding AKs specifically), poker lets you dictate a working schedule more than any job I can think of and that alone makes it a very solid option while you're in school.

IMO.

This is not true. Suppose you are playing heads up and both of you shove preflop. You have aces, opponent has kings. If you repeat this situation a million times with the same hands, same stack sizes, etc, you're almost certainly going to hit your EV exactly or at least be really close. In fact, it's actually possible to run above EV in this situation if the Ks fail to win the 20% of the time they are supposed to even though you are getting your money in good each time.

It's all just about distribution. And only a small percentage of your hands even have an effect on EV. Set your filter to "all in on turn (or before)" and see how many hands fall under this category. And then compare it to total hands played. I think for me, I'm all in before the river on about 1% of my total hands. And in some portion of that 1%, someone is drawing dead, so those hands don't deviate from EV. I check my EV line, but only as a novelty. I spend enough time worrying about the poker I CAN control. I'm not fretting about situations that I can't.

That being said, let the guy vent a little.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $12.00
UTG: $46.10
UTG+1: $52.75
UTG+2: $10.00
MP1: $39.35
MP2: $56.25
CO: $48.85
Hero (BTN): $50.00
SB: $46.40

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with 5 Q
6 folds, Hero raises to $1, SB calls $0.75, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($3.00) 9 5 K (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $2, SB calls $2, BB raises to $11 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $49 all in, SB calls $43.40 all in

Turn: ($104.80) 2 (3 players - 3 are all in)

River: ($104.80) 7 (3 players - 3 are all in)

Final Pot: $104.80
BB shows K J (a pair of Kings)
Hero shows 5 Q (a flush, King high)
SB shows A T (a flush, Ace high)
SB wins $67.60
SB wins $34.20
(Rake: $3.00)

Down 5 BI right now, 4.5 BI below EV...