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NL50: Hypothetical spot vs taggy lag on the river NL50: Hypothetical spot vs taggy lag on the river

03-21-2010 , 01:50 PM
Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (SB): $89.25
BB: $8.50
UTG: $10.00
MP: $9.25
CO: $83.80
BTN: $60.20

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with T T
2 folds, CO raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.75, 1 fold

Flop: ($4.50) 6 Q 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $3, Hero calls $3

Turn: ($10.50) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $7, Hero calls $7

River: ($24.50) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $15


This didn't actually come up but was thinking after/during the hand that it could be an interesting spot so i put it together.

So villain is a 17/14, 2af, 44 ats (all over 250) a cb% of 50% over 10 hands & a turn cb of 67% over 3, no river cb%.

Notes: 1.5bb/100 over 200k at NL50, he is 3betting me light when we're both in lp. We had some history yesterday, fighting for 3b pots, raising each others cb's light etc (and it didn't generally get to the turn so no info about his double barreling frequency/range), but none as of today.

Assume that villain might be capable of triple barreling some of the time, but we're very unsure of this (Would really be basing this on the fact that he's a lagish reg over a large sample size so we've got the same info on this one)

So what's villains range here & can we call?
NL50: Hypothetical spot vs taggy lag on the river Quote
03-21-2010 , 03:02 PM
I fold on the turn. As played, I fold. Villain probably isn't barreling the turn with a bluff and will probably check behind the river with an overpair. I'd say he usually has a queen here.
NL50: Hypothetical spot vs taggy lag on the river Quote
03-21-2010 , 03:13 PM
imo, his value range here is , 44, 66, 88, QT+, QQ obv, 75s
bluff range: any Adxd, any connecters suited in hearts, and the small chance he's going crazy with some small pp
I don't think he is ever betting the river with JJ or KK, nor AA but it's somewhat more likely than with JJ..

he is definitely representing trips or better here, yet his river bet is not as big as I would expect him to make, given that both of you are so deep. did he tank before fireing the river?
NL50: Hypothetical spot vs taggy lag on the river Quote
03-21-2010 , 03:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kogniac
imo, his value range here is , 44, 66, 88, QT+, QQ obv, 75s
bluff range: any Adxd, any connecters suited in hearts, and the small chance he's going crazy with some small pp
I don't think he is ever betting the river with JJ or KK, nor AA but it's somewhat more likely than with JJ..

he is definitely representing trips or better here, yet his river bet is not as big as I would expect him to make, given that both of you are so deep. did he tank before fireing the river?
Lets say he took the same amount of time to bet each street.
NL50: Hypothetical spot vs taggy lag on the river Quote
03-21-2010 , 03:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AphexDeuce
Lets say he took the same amount of time to bet each street.
thought about it and I'd call. you're getting almost 3-1 and you'll learn some valuable information AND you're not going to get 3 barrelled soon..
NL50: Hypothetical spot vs taggy lag on the river Quote

      
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