Sorry, this is my first post on 2p2. If I'm doing anything wrong, be sure to let me know....

Reads: Villain has been playing quite aggressive against me, 3betting me quite frenquently, and I'd been folding mostly, though I did throw in one 4bet for value with QQ. This hand I'm UTG, however. He has yet to 3bet me UTG.

Relevant Stats (this table only)

Hero is 20/17. Afactor: 2.2 Cbet: 69% Turn Bet: 31% WTSD: 32%. Hands 212
Villain is 34/25. 3bet: 16.4 AFactor: 3.4 Hands:677


CO: $21.43 (85.7 bb)
BTN: $30.13 (120.5 bb)
SB: $15.10 (60.4 bb)
BB: $25.12 (100.5 bb)
Hero (UTG): $58.78 (235.1 bb)
MP: $29.30 (117.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T T
Hero raises to $0.85, MP calls $0.85, 4 folds

Flop: ($2.05) A 7 J (2 players)
Hero bets $1, MP calls $1

Turn: ($4.05) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks

River: ($4.05) J (2 players)
Hero bets $1.40

My cbet was a little on the small side, but I'd been cbetting this small on this table for great success with my cbet bluffs, so I felt no reason to increase it here.

I elected to check the turn because I think he's going to stab at it often with his small pairs, whiffed SC's, etc. I don't think there is many aces in his range, as I'd imagine he would have 3bet most of them preflop. Except suited Aces. I didn't intend to fold to his turn bet.

He checks behind.

On the river I am betting for thin value to get a call from all of his small pairs, as after I check the turn, villain can safely rule any aces out of my range.

My question is:

Should I check the river to induce a bluff from villain? Or am I better off thin value betting to get a call from his small pairs?

c/f flop. you have bad equity vs his entire calling range, no cards to barrel and you're oop

Checking to induce is the only to get value here then snap call, V's aggro, you look weak, you're getting near 4-1.

I don't think so. He's super 3bet happy, so I imagine all his strong aces are being 3bet here, so we can discount those from his overall range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.146% 57.07% 00.08% 61579 87.00 { TcTd }
Hand 1: 42.854% 42.77% 00.08% 46157 87.00 { 99-22, AJs-A4s, KTs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AJo, KQo }


I think check folding here is a mistake.

thats your edge vs his preflop range. Now add the board and see how your hand does vs his range then. Now add in the fact that he will fold everything you're ahead of by cbetting the flop and all the hands he can float with to take it away on the turn. it's really not a profitable situation. Most of the times when you get called on this flop you're gonna c/f the turn vs his bet and I don't expect him to bluff his PP very often.

c/f is def not a mistake on this flop

No, that was my equity on the flop vs. his preflop calling range.

I do agree with your comment about his range that is continuing to my cbet. But we're discussing flop play here; not turn.

However, I'm not overly convinced about check folding flop vs. agro villains who will bet when you miss a cbet close to every time. I just dug up the hand on my database, and his fold to cbet was 20%. That to me tells me that he is either floating too much, or he isn't folding his PP to flop bets. So even my flop cbet is for thin value, against the range he continues with.

fourking, unless you have postional stats to the contrary, it is highly likely his 3b range from MP to a UTG opener is far tighter than his total 3b % (which will be primarily 3bets from CO/BTN/BLNDS) so basically you are just completely wrong about what his MP calling range would be and it includes many A and Js etc, so c/f flop would have been fine as neok said, but as played you can safely c/f the river, he will never call with middle PPs as he realizes he beats very little if he happens to have a small PP and to induce a bluff or whatever is just suicide, so just c/f (flop/turn or river tbh) ainec .

If he doesn't ever fold to cbets and is very agressive, that makes an even stronger case to c/f flop. You can call it 'thin value', but its really just burning money. You can vbet thinly otf and then you have to c/f turn. This villain should be easy to exploit, but this isnt the board to do it on.

Ok, I see what you guys are saying now.

Thanks for the advice. My thinking was a tad off.

Cheers!

And, fwiw, not that it matters. . . but he called with 99.

I think 99 and 88 are the very lowest hands he can call with, and imo he shouldnt be calling with them at all. In that sense seen as he is calling down light its okay to bet lightly vs him for value, but the board in this case was not right to do so.

And what is his Fold to flop cbet?