I just played this hand versus a regular player.
On the flop facing a raise this is a pure theoretical continuation with T9dd with an EV of call pretty high ~6.63.
This is assuming vilain raises hands such QJs/QTs/JTs (raise 10%), 76s/65s/54s (raise 15-100%) and also low PP at small frequencies.

What do you think of the fold here ?


PokerStars - €0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 311.36 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 11.90, Hands: 114)
Hero (SB): 101.5 BB
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 25.96, PFR: 21.73, 3Bet Preflop: 10.60, Hands: 2,406)
CO: 139 BB (VPIP: 19.23, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 10.87, Hands: 112)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9:diamond: T:diamond:

fold, BTN raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 12 BB, fold, BTN calls 9.5 BB

Flop: (25 BB, 2 players) A:spade: 9:club: 2:heart:
Hero bets 5.94 BB, BTN raises to 14.5 BB, fold

BTN wins 35.04 BB

Bad
You have equity even vs his value hands and raise is so small.

If you're folding here, what are you continuing with other than AK, AQ, AJs, or A9s if you ever use that as a bluff-y raise from the SB?

Not the worst to continue against, especially as the raising region in this spot should be quite draw-bluff heavy and the raise is so small

I'm making an assumption about the bluff range in this instance - rather than having run GTO calculations or w.e.. but the raise is definitely small! lol

Always calling but folding to more aggression on turn.

I get that sounds like a terrible plan but villains at this level will not find enough turn bluffs when our range is still so nutted

Yeah that's just the point.
I knew it was a GTO continuation but I folded for exploitatives reasons. (On the moment I played I though vilain will not found enough bluff in his raising range in this board).
And it may be bad as you guys mentionned, that's why I created this topic.

Yes, it looks too weak.
We still have 5 outs on the turn and river, even if the opponent doesn't have enough bluffs.
Call on the flop and fold on the turn if the opponent continues aggression looks like a solid plan.

Sounds like a fine plan to me.

We're certainly going to lose the hand more often than not, but we only need 19% pot share to breakeven on a call. Yes, we're going to end up x/f the turn a lot, but there's enough EV in the branches where we bink 2 pair/trips or villain gives up his bluffs and we win at showdown.

I think this hand illustrates that you have to be careful with exploits sometimes. Even if we assume that villain has a tighter and more value heavy flop raising range than a solver would (which may very well be true), it doesn't necessarily mean we can just fold straight away. He has to be underraising quite dramatically for that to be the case.

I don't like this flop betsize with this hand
Maybe its gto, whatever, but in my experience making this bet with this hand is asking for trouble because players will "pounce" on it thinking its weak and raise, or they will feel priced in with hands and call. Then nearly all turns you are going to have no clue what to do oop. Bigger pots give the player more incentive to try and steal it from you. Sure if you are a solver then you can find the right frequencies on next streets but since you fold flop I assume you are not a solver
Reality is you made a weak bet and then gave up because you didn't like being in a tough spot... not criticising you but that is something to be avoided