Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
SB ($24.15)
BB ($26.18)
UTG ($60.25)
UTG+1 ($33.83)
CO ($92.94)
Hero ($25)

Dealt to Hero K 2

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.50, fold, BB raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1

FLOP ($3.10) 4 6 5

BB bets $1.75, Hero calls $1.75

TURN ($6.60) 4 6 5 7

BB checks, Hero bets $3.90, BB calls $3.90

RIVER ($14.40) 4 6 5 7 6

[color=red]BB checks, Hero bets $17.85 (AI)

V is 22/14 3.6 3bet 1.9 af 500 hands

Do I get an overpair to fold? Also should I bet less OTR does shipping look bluffy?

I think when the board pairs after you bet bet its time to check fold when you bet that river so big you never have the six so what are you repping?????? An overpair will always slow down when board pairs I think your bluff there is obvious but it all comes down to the range you assign to villain and whether you feel they can call it or not A high will be good a tonne there but who's hero calling for stacks

I m can very well have any 6 and any 8 in the deck here and its very hard for him to have it. But I guess you are right betting like 11.90 does the same and actually looks stronger.

just fold pre.

the guy is 3betting 3%.

his gonna just have QQ/AK a ton here and sometimes JJ/AQ, maybe KQ since its btn vs blind.

peeling with pocket pairs is one thing, but K2s is dominated too often and just isn't going to play as well as you want it to postflop - ya once in a while you bink something huge but what are we hoping for? if we flop a king and he pumps a bunch of chips in there we just lose, and if we flop a flush draw we just get it in as a dog hoping to bink.

trying to make a unl nit fold aces in a 3bet pot just makes the situation even that much worse.

this guy is not exploiting you with his 3bets. he folds so much you can open tons of buttons and take advantage of him through stealing. you actually exploit him by folding to his 3bets and never giving his nutted range any loose action.

He is 3betting way too small I m not folding K2s in this spot or any two suited cards ever.

why?

just because you like suited cards?

if you flop a flush draw do you think it's going to be profitable to be semibluff raising, or to chase your flush?

do you think you are going to get him to fold his super strong range postflop very often?

if you flop a pair are you going to end up making one or two bad peels?

is it possible the reverse implied odds associated with flopping a pair or a draw or running poor bluffs outweigh the implied odds of flopping 2pair or a flush?

Benjamin is right you put yourself into too many tricky spots far too often poker is all about making +ev plays and to a 3 bet k2 suited or not is -ev. What happens when you hit your king his range is full of kx type hands which crush you AA and you'll end up spewing chips long term fold it move on to next hand GG

Agree with all of what BB says really.
Villain folds all his no pair hands ott, which just leaves his QQ-AA type range which NITs in the micros just aren't folding often enough to make this a profitable play in the long term imo
Considering ur history with villain he may be 3betting small to induce this kind of play from you if you're prone to attacking perceived weakness often enough?

I dont see it seriously. You are saying that he will never fold an overpair and in the same sentence that we should fold to a 3bet getting easily 1-25 odds on his stack when we hit 2pairs+. I would even go as far as saying folding K2s here preflop is a pretty big mistake.

I really have no idea if my bluff is good, but I guess its probably not. But I have no doubt that preflop can ever be a fold vs this kind of a 3bet. Also I want to get much better at bluffing so if I have to pay a few stacks to learn I m in for it.
I just think that shoving river is probably a mistake 2/3 pot probably does the same and even might look stronger, he can also have 2overs and a fd ott and he might fold overpairs sometimes(not saying always ofc nits are terrible at folding).

fold pre

Yea but you can't guarantee you get his whole stack and its a situation where the only way you win is if they fold which after his turn call and the board pairs it doesn't really change the hand your repping so long term he may fold and you win a small pot but risk a lot or he calls and you lose a big pot in a spot you never should have put yourself in in the first place. Not having a go at you poker is about learning and it just seems like a -ev play long term very high variance play you have to agree with that

No its a pretty big +EV spot to call this pre. Its -EV to fold vs these kind of 3bets, we have position and a perfectly playable hand. I think folding any 1gapper or suited hand is a mistake vs these kind of 3bets honestly.
I cant believe everybody is folding this pre.

So what type of flops would you be excited about discount made flushes as you would lose more before you hit one of them, then remember if you make your flush are you up against a bigger flush, what happens when you flop your k ????? Then you hit 2 pair on a k2A board and he lovingly lets you stack your 2 pair into his set...............it's -EV fold it and move on dont fall in love with suited cards also he didn't 3 bet small you min raised he made it $1 more probably trying to induce you to 4 bet and stack to his QQ+ AKs+

pretty easy fold pre vs this nit

what's your plan otherwise? he's cbetting likely more than 75% of flops, will you float all those?
3% 3bet over 500 hands means he will get to the flop with a pretty strong range

bet more on the turn so you don't have to overship river, like you would if you had a set or 88 or w/e

Oh christ...

Who on earth is coaching you? Lol

I think you watched a few too many HSNL vids, but you gotta remember this is NL25 and villain is a nitty 3better who's only 3betting 99+,AQs+ in this spot. The fact that you have no idea how he's playing and have to ask about your line and if this villain will fold an OP here shows why it's bad to call pre, you just spewed off a stack when you should have only lost 2bb's.

I agree with fold pre. It just isn't a good spot for a bluff. He 3-bet so much....he isn't bluffing and he isn't going away anytime soon. Pick a better spot.

Z

Even with these pot odds, look how you fare against a 3% range and what these kind of opponents fold... Fold pre as calling is just -ev. I won't even mention that even if you get your flush draw, you could run against the nut flush and get stacked. Just exploit his nittyness by folding and raise his bb relentlessly next orbit!

Folding to 3bet vs. this guy

okok maybe I m taking it too far. Playing really really laggy atm it works really good, but obviously some spots are probably pretty spewy. But obviously thats why I m still @nl25 not nl200+ :P Thanks for the comments.

what are the odds of flopping 2pair? about a 50:1 shot? and you don't get a full 25:1 because you don't stack QQ on KT2. more importantly, let's say you get your miracle flop of KT2 and he holds AA and you have the dream situation you are looking for:

Board: Kd Ts 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.162% 71.16% 00.00% 4227 0.00 { Kc2c }
Hand 1: 28.838% 28.84% 00.00% 1713 0.00 { AA }

so now our 50:1 shot to hit 2pair only wins a bit more than 2/3 of the time, so we actually need a quite a bit more than 50:1 implied odds to 2pair mine.

the odds of flopping a flush are less than 1%, and even at that Kc2c doesn't always stack AhAd when it flops a flush, and if he has the nut redraw he has over 30% equity on the flop, so you need more than 100:1 implied odds to flush mine.

to make matters worse, this is all assuming you never put in a bad postflop bet or call anywhere vs AA/AK/KK on a K-high board, or never peel with a flush draw without proper odds - and also that you never attempt a bad bluff.

the main argument for defending your hand should not be that you can flop 2pair, but rather that you can win vs his AK/AQ when you both miss since you are in position and can credibly rep middling connected boards, and that sometimes you can win vs his QQ/KK on an A-high board when he seems to be giving up.

but really the cons outweigh the pros on the whole.

nice post BB


flatting pre is lol worthy

the post flop bluff is bad. he has something, people dont like folding.

gl with playing LAG. sometimes it works for 10k hands and then you just lose your BR and your mind trying to bully uNL games

also you might be missing the boat on the whole theory of button stealing.

you are minraising the button. that risks 2bb to win 1.5bb, meaning it needs to work 2/(2+1.5) = 57% of the time.

let's assume villain is 3betting 4% here, calling 10% and folding 86%. now let's put a mirror image of him in both blinds. the chances that both fold to your steal are .86*.86 = 74%.

this means that if you folded everything (even aces) to his 3bet, and if he called you just open folded every flop (even if you flopped the nuts), you would still be profiting in this situation.

with his nitty defending frequencies, the only way he can make any money off you in this spot is if you give loose action to his tight/strong defending ranges.

with specific regard to his 3betting, if he is 3betting 4% here, that means 96% of the time he is not 3betting! so the meager 4% he wants to 3bet, just let him have it. sure, you can play your aces and stack him, and if he wants to 3bet to this tiny size, you can even profitably setmine.

but the best way to exploit his super tight 3betting range is to just steal like crazy and fold almost everything to his 3bet, except for your super premium hands and hands with the best possible implied odds such as pocket pairs (assuming he makes a very small 3bet).

why do you think he 3bets so small btw? what is his thinking? do you think he's doing it because he wants to get a really cheap price on his wide 3bet bluffing range? or do you think he does it in hopes that you won't be able to fold pre and will end up spewing off to him postflop?

lastly please understand OP that i am not trying to berate you or say you play bad or anything like that

i am just trying to share some understanding with you (and the community) that took me quite some time to fully get my mind around, and i did put some thought behind my posts - so i hope you will read them with a truly open mind and at least consider on a deeper level why getting a good price when holding suited cards is only a small part of the whole story

Well compared to small pairs K2s has a bit better equity and we have position. Also we can sometimes win the pot without having the best hand as well.
Even vs a very tight range of JJ+ AKs we have 25% equity and this is BU vs SB so even a nit will have at least sometimes have a wider range for 3betting specially when I open with a minraise with ATC every orbit. So realistically we have a 30% equity and position and superior skill(hopefully, maybe not :P).

Thanks for the effort BB I really appreciate it.



I dont think I could ever loose my BR playing lag lol.
I played ~35/29 last 15k hands I m up ~10 stacks, but I m also 12 stacks under ev.

You have to bluff this runout once you float the flop...bet turn, shove river, but as others have said, you really should be folding pre.