Hi, villian is 13/7/9(EP OR 11% lol but MP 6%, CO 7%) over 340 hands with 40% fold to 3B
whats my plan here?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($25)
BB ($27.01)
UTG ($82.49)
UTG+1 ($26.46)
MP1 ($44.45)
MP2 ($37.74)
Hero (CO) ($25.35)
Button ($23.39)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, A
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $1, 2 folds, Hero raises $3.50, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.35) K, 2, A (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero ?

Bet, 5 - 6 imo

I think his range is pretty small so we can just list his possible hands and see the best way to extract from them.

KK- You stack him everytime (unless he hits a 1-outter). Money is going in the middle regardless so its irrelevant.

AK- Same as above.

QQ- He HATES this flop and will probably fold to any normal sized CB. Checking and betting the turn and river probably does better against QQ. Alternatively, messing with his head and betting ridiculously small here seems reasonable. Can he really fold for 50 cents? Why would you bet so little? Any doubt you put in his mind or excuse you give him to call adds lots of value to your hand.

Another benefit to checking, you give him the 4% shot of spiking an underset. All of the above applies to JJ and probably TT as well.

Of course it should be noted that checking back this flop looks super scary and will still probably fold his QQ on the turn, but I can't see it folding out QQ more often than a normal sized CB. If he's the kind of guy who can't fold QQ here ever because "you might have JJ" then he's almost certainly not the type to have a change of heart and fold the turn because you checked the flop, after all "he might be checking because he has JJ!"

Small PPs: Was probably just setmining and will fold to any bet. I still think checking does better here overall due to the aforementioned 4%.

AQ: Depends on how good he is but he should know that he's not beating anything you'd put the rest of your stack in with. I think betting flop and turn will blow out most decent players who have any sort of hand reading ability. Chk/Bet/shove or Bet/Chk/shove are better lines vs AQ imo.

Suited broadways/random junk: Is it possible he would have a hand like QJs here? Seems very unlikely to me but thats really the only sort of hand that poses any threat whatsoever to you, and I don't think its out often enough to alter our play. Obv the best line vs this type of hand is pot-bet/shove, Checking the flop vs this sort of hand would hurt.

Overall: Checking, or betting farcically small seems to do the best against his whole range, despite the fact that it does run the slight risk of letting an uncharacteristically played broadway/suitedconn holding get there. Yeah, checking this flop back vs QJ is pretty horrible, but on balance I think its worth the risk.

- If you do decide to bet the flop I don't think there is any reason to bet more than 1/2 the pot. For some reason I feel like a CB of just about 1/2 pot or even slightly less is viewed as weakness by a lot of players, but 2/3 to full pot is seen as very scary, especially in 3-bet pots.

- If you check the flop, as I think you should, and the turn comes a club or a 3rd broadway card, over bet the pot if he checks it again, like $15. If you bet the flop, I don't think you should bet any non /broadway turns because they will fold out AQ or AJs too often whereas you may get the rest of their stack if you check the turn.

TLDR, I don't know how this happened.

you're trying to get stacks in, which will be easy with 2 streets.

bet 20% check 80%

brock - wow that is one sick post man, thx, tired of these "bet flop, fold river" comments

i like 4

ummm sucks cause it turns our hand over, but we have to check, only hand we get value from are hands we already have crushed, and almost nothing else. ****ty flop for us, actually, heh. Unless villain has KK or AK, anyway.

no free cards. Bet him to death please.

i would check back only because the A of clubs is on board. if the K was a club, and the A was a diamond I would be more inclined to bet.

with this hand, i think there's a very low chance he's on a flush draw so checking back hoping he hit a set or decides to take a shot on turn will give me more $$$.

*grunch*
You're going to get his stack if he has KK, so let's not talk about KK.
It's the hands like Ax or 22-QQ we have to think about.

One note: if a third club comes, you HAVE to bet to deny him odds for drawing to a random 4-flush.

I like to check to give him a chance to catch an underset. Honestly: how much are we going to win from an unimproved smaller pair if we bet? Either he is stupid like a brick or he likes to bluff, otherwise we're not going to get much.

If he spikes his underset, I can't really see him folding somewhere in the hand because you might have AK, so we're likely to get his whole stack. If he catches quads - so what...

If he check F+T+R, then I bet the river no matter what.

Personally I like a small "scared" bet here. Checking this in the hopes he hits his set outs is ridiculous, and in the long run will cause you to get stacked more often and ultimately lose value with this hand.

His range should be pretty tight here and I think checking is the best bet here. You will stack KK and AK, but the rest will all be folds if you bet here. It's very safe to say that he probably doesn't have any sort of suited/connected cards as those cards aren't profitable to peel a flop with 100BB stacks and being OOP.

As others have suggested, check or half pot bet it.

His range is mainly PPs, possibly AK. We are stacking KK and AK regardless and if he has QQ- and we check back he has minimal chance to improve to something that can stack off. He's also unlikely to bluff us when we check back this flop because he's a nit and we almost always have a hand with SD value when we check back. Also I doubt checking back widens his calling range much. But he might peel small flop and turn bets on the grounds that he has good odds.

So I would bet like $2.50 and hope he makes a loose peel or does something dumb like c/r with JJ

edit: fwiw I would also bet this small with my air

bet $3, $6, $14

Don't give him a free card to do something like fill a flush or get a boat.

I'd give it a decent sized bet to fold out hands on a flush draw, but low enough to keep 2pair or top pair in the action.

he has no draws in his range and we have top set so he would have to hit quads... also he is never folding AK and almost never has AQ-

our concern here is maximising value vs QQ-

*is just going to ignore some of the more ridiculous posts in this thread*

Interesting spot because our play is almost meaningless. Either he has AK/KK and will stack off or he has JJ/QQ and wants to puke at this board. It would never have occurred to me to bet something gay like $2.50-$3.00, but I think that's the best line by a lot and if you can balance it well with air (as HP has suggested), it's even better (not to mention funny). Checking back the flop and then making these gay bets might be a bit more effective, because I can't see villain ever calling the third shell with something like QQ or JJ. However, if we think villain is gonna freeze up and just c/c AK for three streets, then this is definitely the way to go.

you make it sound like "gay" is a bad thing....

LOL I didn't mean it that way...I actually thought that by calling it "gay" and touting it as the best line (which I think it is) that "gay" would be the new black! Or the new "black and gay"....(just ignore me)

haha, I know you like the man love....just blame it on the alcohol

actually I think we have the terminolgy wrong.

A "gay" bet, would be fabulously over the the top. Like $44 into a $3 pot.

A small bet weakish bet we could call a "french bet",

Isn't a French bet a fold?

lol

haha

brilliant!

If you play your air like imfromsweeden you can just bet this.