PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG): 122.88 BB
MP: 106.73 BB
CO: 100 BB
BTN: 179.5 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 100.56 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9 8

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, MP calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 2 BB, fold

Flop: (8.5 BB, 3 players) 8 9 7
SB checks, Hero checks, MP checks

Turn: (8.5 BB, 3 players) 4
SB bets 4.04 BB, Hero calls 4.04 BB, MP calls 4.04 BB

River: (20.62 BB, 3 players) 8
SB checks, Hero checks, MP bets 9.8 BB, SB raises to 93.46 BB and is all-in, fold, MP calls 83.67 BB

SB shows 7 8 (Full House, Eights full of Sevens)
(Pre 43%, Flop 65%, Turn 7%)
MP shows 3 K (Flush, King High)
(Pre 57%, Flop 35%, Turn 93%)
SB wins 206.04 BB

MP is a rec, vpip 50%, very low 3bet
SB is a reg who plays high stake(this is PSNJ, the biggest stake thats runs regularly is NL500, so there are some high stake guys play nl200), he doesn't have a cold calling range at SB, I think he did it because of the rec, and BB is a nit

My thought is SB is not bluffing for sure, and he shouldn't shove worse hands than 98 because I can have 98, 99, JTs, 65s; the rec could have all those hands, as well as 98o and T6s; so i didn't think much and folded my 98s (needs 43% equity to call, chop with one combo of 98s, and lose to 99, TJ, 56s)

Did i make a mistake by not calling this hand? or did he make a mistake by shoving too thin? or, maybe he didn't think I could have much strong hands after I only call turn and check river

had to read this 3 times to make sure. bro, you did not fold this

Yea I'm not sure if I could fold here, MP is a definite fish and until you said something I figured SB was as well.

We should also bet otf because MP won't be stabbing and/or bluff raising as much as they should.

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even knowing he shoves 78s, 98s is still not a clear call

I lose to JT, 56, 99, 3 combos
I chop with 98s, 1 combo
I beat 78s, 1 combo

I risk 93bb to win 210bb, need 44% equity, that's not enough, unless after I call, the rec calls worse hands, or SB shoves 77 or 44

I agree that he has 0 bluffs, but IMO he was focused on getting max value against the whale and thus shoving 77 and 44.

99 mostly will sqz pre maybe even 88
I would raise turn bet, even good regs play face up when fish is in the pot. River you could bet small otr, ap you can't fold.

I've often wondered if it makes sense, from a """theoretical""" but also practical point of view, to check RIVER a nutted hand in the center of a 3way.

The risks of reopen betting and being raised being potentially greater and the calling ranges being narrower at 3 players, the last IP player has very little incentive to bet (in value and therefore in bluff) and should have no valuebet in below 80/85%+ EQ imo.

So IP should bet much less than in a heads up situation, while bet ourselves offers us a "double" opportunity to get called or raised (even if the MDF is supposed to split in theory).

Also completely dramatic situations where the 1st player checks a very strong hand, we check the nuts, and IP xback a mediocre hand can exist while this is not the case OOP in a classic heads' up situation.

Anyway, I'm getting out of hand and digressing a little but I don't have a definitive answer to this question...

To answer the hand, we need 43% EQ to call and villain probably never has anything other than full.

We have 30% EQ against 78s/99/65dd/JTdd/98s.

So now he just needs to do that with 44-77 17% of the time to be in the odds.

I think we can call.

You are playing vs fish who don't understand absolute value so they will overplay flushes/can also have worse FHs.

Would also raise turn.

Checking the river is awful, folding the river is not real hopefully…..

This is not a close spot - this is a 200% call on the river.

It‘s just ridiculous to even think about folding.

so much nonsense…

if SB was the fish it would of been a easy call for me. SB was not the fish, he was the reg who plays up to nl5k. but i think he might be jamming light(all full house) to target the fish who bet the river, knowing that he might call down light(the result also shows that he called with K high flush)

also i think the fact that i checked river made my range super capped, so the reg didn't worry much about me

Do you still raise the turn? the fish behind could have flush, and the SB could have straight, set, flush that range checked flop. 2pair is not strong enough here imo