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nl20 TPTK facing raise on flop on paired board nl20 TPTK facing raise on flop on paired board

05-01-2011 , 08:45 AM
Winamax - €0.20 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BB: €24.36
UTG: €38.58
Hero (UTG+1): €34.19
MP: €19.70
MP+1: €8.55
LP: €31.16
CO: €8.00
BTN: €8.10
SB: €20.73

SB posts SB €0.10, BB posts BB €0.20

Pre Flop: (€0.30) Hero has Q A

UTG calls €0.20, Hero raises to €0.80, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls €0.60, UTG calls €0.60

Flop: (€2.50, 3 players) 9 Q 9
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets €1.25, BB raises to €4.00, fold, Hero calls €2.75

Turn: (€10.50, 2 players) 3
BB bets €6.00, ???

Vilains stats:
UTG: 54/17/40 (111 hands)
BB: 15/10/39 (271 hands) raise on flop: 0% (0/18), turn bet 13% (3/23).

My image: except CO who is loose (51/17/48; 47 hands) other players are either nit or players with stats like 25/5 who fold too much on flop so I'm playing quite aggressive, stealing blinds and CBetting any frightning flop. When I R PF I think BB think I have a good hand (I'm EP) but when I CB flop he may have noticed I CB any high card flop.

On flop I think these hands are not in BB range:
QQ+: he would have 3B PF OOP
9x: he would not have call OOP

99 is in his range but a bluff is more likely that's why I call.
Moreover I don't think he would raise a full or a quad here.

But when he bets again on turn, I'm really surprised. I think I have to call though because it's probably a bluff.

After analyzing the hand alone I also think maybe he PF he didn't 3B QQ+ to keep UTG in the hand.

Any help is welcome.
nl20 TPTK facing raise on flop on paired board Quote
05-01-2011 , 09:41 AM
I think his raise flop stat of 0/18 tells you all you need to know. Did you have that on your HUD while you were at the table, or did you discover it when looking into the hand afterwards?

Unless he is choosing this hand to break a pattern established over the last 271 hands, he does not raise the flop light. In fact, he doesn't raise it even when he has a good hand. He only raises with a once-in-300-hands monster. We can fairly safely put him on 99, QQ, A9s or maybe - just maybe - AQ. You tie with one of those hands and lose to the rest. If you knew that 0/18 stat at the time, it's a no-brainer fold.

In general, I tend to take micro bets to mean what they say until I have a read that villain is a bluffer. Here, it seems cut and dried, no?

Edit: and even if we didn't know the 0/18 flop raise stat at the table, the turn bet is enough to make me fold TPTK on a paired board without a read on villain
nl20 TPTK facing raise on flop on paired board Quote
05-01-2011 , 10:13 AM
+1, imho an easy flop fold cuz he'll 100% bet turn and river while your TPTK won't get improved enough. Caliing 3 streets is a too expensive decision for a mere TPTK. I think TAGs with 15/10 stats (which are on hud) seldom light-raise flop anyway, don't they? BB's QQ+/A9s/99 flat call is probable cuz he may think u're isolating the fish much wider than your UTG+1 opening range (with QQ+ he doesn't want you to fold and with A9s/99 he doesn't wanna face a 4bet).
nl20 TPTK facing raise on flop on paired board Quote
05-01-2011 , 04:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mhj75
I think his raise flop stat of 0/18 tells you all you need to know. Did you have that on your HUD while you were at the table, or did you discover it when looking into the hand afterwards?

Unless he is choosing this hand to break a pattern established over the last 271 hands, he does not raise the flop light. In fact, he doesn't raise it even when he has a good hand. He only raises with a once-in-300-hands monster. We can fairly safely put him on 99, QQ, A9s or maybe - just maybe - AQ. You tie with one of those hands and lose to the rest. If you knew that 0/18 stat at the time, it's a no-brainer fold.

In general, I tend to take micro bets to mean what they say until I have a read that villain is a bluffer. Here, it seems cut and dried, no?

Edit: and even if we didn't know the 0/18 flop raise stat at the table, the turn bet is enough to make me fold TPTK on a paired board without a read on villain
I agree with you but here I think his line does not make sense, do you think he would not 3B QQ here PF? for 99 it's ok but it's only one hand, AQ too but it's a split pot.
nl20 TPTK facing raise on flop on paired board Quote
05-01-2011 , 04:53 PM
cbet more otf imho.
i would discount 99-QQ from villain's range, he would probably just call flop to keep the fish in. not many 9x in his range too.
AhJh, AhKh, AQ and slowplayed KK+ (always to keep you and the fish in) make sense though. sometimes he can turn TT-JJ into bluffs on this board, but i doubt it given his stats.
i'd fold flop and give him credit because of his stats, but i don't hate calling down flop and turn when it bricks like this and revaluate river.
nl20 TPTK facing raise on flop on paired board Quote

      
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