const userId = 0; NL100 flop big draw, interested in lines - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit - Micro Stakes Poker Forum
Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
NL100 flop big draw, interested in lines NL100 flop big draw, interested in lines

01-31-2010 , 12:59 AM
Party Poker $100 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $112.25
UTG: $176.45
CO: $100.00
Hero (BTN): $121.21
SB: $104.96

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with Q 9
UTG raises to $3, CO calls $3, Hero calls $3, SB calls $2.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($13.00) 8 J 2 (4 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $10, CO folds, Hero calls $10, SB folds

Turn: ($33.00) 7 (2 players)
UTG bets $23, Hero raises to $108.21 all in

villain is 18/14 over 140 hands, 100% cbet 4/4. seems a pretty standard nitty reg. interested in people's thoughts on every street, squeezing pre is an option obv, as is raising the flop, but i don't mind playing these spots
in position with hands that can hit big so i'm happy flatting pre and otf, thoughts? how about my turn play, i figure most of his double barrelling range here is overpairs and AJ,KJ and is going to struggle to call this turn shove, like or not?
NL100 flop big draw, interested in lines Quote
01-31-2010 , 01:03 AM
ya I like this a lot vs. a nitty reg since you're prob. only getting called by sets and Jxhh.
NL100 flop big draw, interested in lines Quote
01-31-2010 , 01:06 AM
I probably would've just raised flop. This gives us the initiative and being IP we have a lot of power on a lot of different turn cards. Assuming he just flats we can barrel a lot of turns to take it down or take a free card to bink our straight.

If you're gonna play it the way you played it, you hit your gin card on the turn. You have a lot of fold equity as you can effectively rep T9 (as long as you play T9 the same way here.) If the turn was a 2d or another brick, you'd have a much harder time repping anything.
NL100 flop big draw, interested in lines Quote
01-31-2010 , 01:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unjammed
I probably would've just raised flop. This gives us the initiative and being IP we have a lot of power on a lot of different turn cards. Assuming he just flats we can barrel a lot of turns to take it down or take a free card to bink our straight.

If you're gonna play it the way you played it, you hit your gin card on the turn. You have a lot of fold equity as you can effectively rep T9 (as long as you play T9 the same way here.) If the turn was a 2d or another brick, you'd have a much harder time repping anything.
yeah i obv play the nuts the same way here on the turn. with regards to your flop point, i think with it being such a wet flop he can 3bet/get it in with overpairs/sets edit:because my raising range has so many more draws, whereas if i flat there are so many turn cards good for both my hand and my perceived range that i can reduce variance rather than just being oh yah big draw lets get it in and flip

Last edited by GOONERCAM; 01-31-2010 at 01:18 AM.
NL100 flop big draw, interested in lines Quote
01-31-2010 , 01:16 AM
Well props to you for being aware of that. I am the combodrawhappy nut you're referring to and am flipping for 400bb pots on the flop way too often.
NL100 flop big draw, interested in lines Quote
01-31-2010 , 01:25 AM
raising flop is way better 4way.
NL100 flop big draw, interested in lines Quote
01-31-2010 , 01:25 AM
- You're risking 108.21 to win 282.42 = 38.315% equity needed (someone double check if this is correct?)
- You have 11-12 outs = 22-25% pot equity (let's just say 23.5%)
- You only need 14.815% fold equity to break even. Villain has 76.5% pot equity. Villain needs to fold only 19.366% of the time for you to break even
- Villain's range consists of 18 over pairs and 9 sets, so 67% of his range MIGHT fold.

I think at WORST, this is a break even play. Well played IMO. This is probably the optimal line to take if you flat the flop.

The only question left is whether there's a better play... raising flop and bombing the turn maybe? Hard to say how villain would have reacted to that though...
NL100 flop big draw, interested in lines Quote
01-31-2010 , 01:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wishiewish
raising flop is way better 4way.
im expecting you're right so whats the reasons for it being better? is it really that much more > EV than flatting?
NL100 flop big draw, interested in lines Quote
01-31-2010 , 01:37 AM
he can´t 3bet without nfd or sets 4way(assuming he is somewhat good).
you are IP so you can run some bluffs on some turns.
oh, and you are never flatting that flop with real big hands 4way. too drawy. on turn, you only rep T9.
NL100 flop big draw, interested in lines Quote
01-31-2010 , 03:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wishiewish
he can´t 3bet without nfd or sets 4way(assuming he is somewhat good).
you are IP so you can run some bluffs on some turns.
oh, and you are never flatting that flop with real big hands 4way. too drawy. on turn, you only rep T9.
yeah i see what you mean, like i'd never flat 88 here otf because the board is so wet. thats a pretty solid point.

given your first line assumption does this mean we're folding the flop if we're 3bet?
NL100 flop big draw, interested in lines Quote
01-31-2010 , 04:51 AM
yep, we are raise folding.
NL100 flop big draw, interested in lines Quote
01-31-2010 , 04:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wishiewish
yep, we are raise folding.
cool, interesting
NL100 flop big draw, interested in lines Quote
01-31-2010 , 07:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wishiewish
yep, we are raise folding.
Isn't it awfully close to a call after raising flop?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

11,880 games 0.052 secs 228,461 games/sec

Board: 8h Jc 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.572% 30.57% 00.00% 3632 0.00 { Qh9h }
Hand 1: 69.428% 69.43% 00.00% 8248 0.00 { JJ, 88, 22, AhKh, AhJh, AhTh }

If he raises to 35 he would need 33% equity to call a shove.
Granted that giving this range he has only 30% equity but add only AA to villain's range and it would be a call with 35% equity and needing only 33%.
NL100 flop big draw, interested in lines Quote
01-31-2010 , 10:08 AM
I imagine his turn barreling range is super strong here and as wishie said you cant rep as wide a range on the turn because you just called the flop.
NL100 flop big draw, interested in lines Quote
01-31-2010 , 10:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lumileijona
Isn't it awfully close to a call after raising flop?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

11,880 games 0.052 secs 228,461 games/sec

Board: 8h Jc 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.572% 30.57% 00.00% 3632 0.00 { Qh9h }
Hand 1: 69.428% 69.43% 00.00% 8248 0.00 { JJ, 88, 22, AhKh, AhJh, AhTh }

If he raises to 35 he would need 33% equity to call a shove.
Granted that giving this range he has only 30% equity but add only AA to villain's range and it would be a call with 35% equity and needing only 33%.
Why would we raise to 35?

Btw i am folding or 3betting this pre.
NL100 flop big draw, interested in lines Quote
01-31-2010 , 10:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wishiewish
Why would we raise to 35?

Btw i am folding or 3betting this pre.
I don't know.. Wouldn't that be pretty standard raise size? Villain would need to call 25 for a total pot of 88$.

I mean if we raise to 25 he would only need to call 15 for total pot of 63.
NL100 flop big draw, interested in lines Quote
01-31-2010 , 10:25 AM
What about 28-31?
NL100 flop big draw, interested in lines Quote
01-31-2010 , 10:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wishiewish
What about 28-31?
OK 30. It would be r/f if you are sure he doesn't shove an overpair or AJ.
Still it would be a very tight fold, no?
NL100 flop big draw, interested in lines Quote
01-31-2010 , 10:36 AM
...
NL100 flop big draw, interested in lines Quote
01-31-2010 , 10:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wishiewish
...
?
NL100 flop big draw, interested in lines Quote

      
m