BB was 34/5/0 over 58 hands, nothing super crazy from him though other than he's used pot sizes when he had bet in other hands. I ran this one in GTOwiz and it thinks the turn is a 100% fold to the minraise, -4ev call, and the jam is -21ev. I think this is a slam dunk jam against a whale, or maybe a call down. -21ev is a lot, so if it's even good as an exploit? I felt like having the flush and straight cards was a good thing here since I never expect him to fold a good FD.

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): 123.28 BB
BTN: 98.5 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 95.06 BB
UTG: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8 8

fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (4.5 BB, 2 players) 9 J 7
BB checks, Hero bets 1.28 BB, BB calls 1.28 BB

Turn: (7.06 BB, 2 players) T
BB checks, Hero bets 11 BB, BB raises to 22 BB, Hero raises to 93 BB, fold

Hero wins 48.51 BB

Vs a whale why not looks good to me. They might just call off w top pair because they "know youre bluffing" a scary board or a flush draw because their last one didnt hit so this one has to

Min raise on 4str8 board vs ob looks quite nutty to me.
I would just bet normal sizing ott. Wehen we jam we mostly get calls from 8x or better hands.

I'm not an expert or anything, but ob seems better v. a whale than a normal bet since it gets a lot more money from 2p/sets/FD that are calling any size, and also because I don't think I can valuebet something like 80%+ of rivers?

I strongly disagree with this. Unless the whale is completely blind he should be aware of the one-liner so he's not going to check-raise top pair - in fact he might not check-raise 2p or even sets on this board. Even if he does - even most passive fish are aware of how weak 2p or a set are on this board, plus Q8 and KQ are real dangers for hero here. Overbet is fine but I'm just calling here, not even clicking it back tbh. Clubs might call but even some of those are going to have straight (or FH) outs.

Not sure how 100nl plays to comment on the jam but I think turn OB is also good because the EV from betting smaller here comes from getting raised a decent amount, even with some bluffs. You probably won't get that often enough from a 34/5 despite it happening here.

This minraise turn is over bluffed by the fishies. Interesting that he bluffed an overbet though. You are always getting stacked by Q8/KQ vs a whale so we need to focus on FDs/2pair/sets. Overbetting OTT does that perfectly

I think you played it great.

He used his entire time bank, and the more I think about it the more I think I got him off of a chop.

Hes a whale, he was probably deciding if he wanted to call you with second pair, unfortunately the answer was no this time

I think this guy falls in my loose passive nit category.

They only raise premiums preflop. They will limp relatively wide but fold the worst half to raises. Post flop they are fit or fold and on the passive side.


I am not surprised if he folded the split here