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I think you're bang on about the terminology, and there are higher stakes players trying to engage with my messy thought processes elsewhere, which is appreciated.
Fwiw, I'm the guy that wrote the COTW that you link to. The other players in this thread are correct about the distinction between balanced vs exploitative strategies. I think your confusion is that your trying to talk about different balanced ranges against different player types which would be true, but it's only true because different player types have different RANGES in any given situation. You are wrong in that a balanced bluffing frequency would be different--the ratio of value to bluff hands is always the same regardless of the opponent.
For example, you're on the river in position with either the nuts or air. when checked to, you're going to have the exact same ratio of value to bluff hands to be balanced against all opponents. The only difference is that you can have more value hands against a LAG because his range is wider. But the percentage of hands which are bluffs will be exactly the same.
However, since most people don't play a balanced strategy, you can maximize your EV by exploiting your opponents imbalances which is the point of the COTW that I wrote.
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There are lots of people scoffing at my read of the villain in the OP without giving any real read themselves. But I'm the only person who included the hand he actually had in my range for him. It's the obvious nut hand, but you can't conceive of calling a 3bet with T9o being a good play, so you range him wrong and make mistakes against him that you wouldn't with a better read.
You can't play this villain optimally if your read only goes as far as 'doesn't follow all the rules for beginners, therefore is a fish'.
Let's use your assumption that the Villain is a LAG and assume that he's opening 50% of hands from the CO (this is very very loose and is almost surely too loose to be profitable against 3 good players left to act -- and given his stats over the small sample size probably almost 1.5 times what his actual opening range is here). Let's further assume that the Villain will never 4-bet (this only means his calling range will need to be wider). And the final assumption, assume the BB gets back 50% of his bluff when a bluff his called ... in other words, he'll on average lose $.55. These are all reasonable assumptions and all actually should strengthen your argument.
Given these assumptions, the CO needs to call the 3-bet with a range of 22.5% of hands in order to not be exploitable. If you look at the top 22.5% of hands, it will not include T9o. This is what a balanced defending range would be in this situation.
But setting aside be balanced here, against almost any Villain's 3-betting range here from the BB, it's going to be very difficult to profitable defend T9o here. Most people aren't opening 50% of hands from the CO and so most players are 3-betting a much tighter range from the BB. And the difference between being suited and not suited is often the difference between hands on the fringe being profitable to defend or not.
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In this case, the mistake was not betting enough on the flop that a rebluff attempt would be too expensive for him, forcing him to play straightforwardly to protect his stack against the nut hand that you are representing with your line.
If you scream strength, a raise says you are beat. If you scream weakness, a raise says you have no idea where you are and have no idea how to proceed.
Bet sizing is probably the most difficult part of poker. And while it could make sense to bet in order to "play straightforwardly" this is very similar to saying "raise to see where you're at". It's important to remember that in all cases, we should be making decisions which maximize our EV.
I can't necessarily say what bet size would maximize our EV in this situation, but I don't necessarily think betting pot is that much better than the bet size he made from a theoretical or exploitative process (but like I said, bet sizing is really difficult).
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But forgive me for not being convinced by someone who has to have that 33 hand explained. It is totally standard.
As for the 33 hand, I'd probably just fold pre flop. Most people aren't balanced with their 3-betting ranges at NL25 from the blinds, and especially from the SB. They're often over-weighted toward value hands. Not to mention 33 is going to be hard to play correctly because like you did here, you're going to need to know when you can turn it into a bluff. And against a good player I don't think you'd be giving up much value by folding it pre flop even if you could profitably defend it.
And if you did want to defend it preflop, I'd prefer floating the flop. It's a pretty good flop for your range and not so good for his. Most SBs shouldn't be value 3-bet AQ against most peoples CO opening range (but maybe it's different if you're opening really wide). Therefore, your range in the CO is going to have a lot more top pair type hands, since you can have both AQ and KQ. I also think you can have quite a few sets here as well.
Given that the board texture is pretty drawy, it should allow you to float a little easier and raise some different turns which might bring a flush or completes a gunshot or something. Although I'd rather have the 3
in my hand if I was going to bluff raise or float.