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[NL10] TT - preflop [NL10] TT - preflop

05-18-2024 , 08:30 AM
I feel I have a gap somewhere in my knowledge and having difficulities to find correct solution in this spot:

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 82.1 BB (VPIP: 60.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
BTN: 116.6 BB (VPIP: 31.07, PFR: 23.30, 3Bet Preflop: 12.82, Hands: 104)
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 77.6 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 14.55, PFR: 14.08, 3Bet Preflop: 1.41, Hands: 221)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T T

fold, CO calls 1 BB, BTN raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 12 BB, fold, CO calls 11 BB, BTN raises to 26 BB, Hero - ?

I guess 3-betting here from SB would be sort of standard having fish limped and small sizing iso from BU.
After CO calls we are getting 4-bet which is not overly big considering 12+12+1 BB in the pot already. BU range is not capped but I really have hard times estimating it and what to do with our TT? I have all thoghts like fold, call or shove, but have no clue what would be the highes EV line here...
[NL10] TT - preflop Quote
05-18-2024 , 06:27 PM
Assuming CO always fold when you go all-in (big assumption), you risk 88bb to win a 214bb pot when called by BTN: you need 41% equity. Against {JJ+,AK} you have 33%, against {QQ+,AK} 36%. And you can discount some AK, since some people (including myself) would sometimes shove instead of doing a proper 4bet, especially with AKoffsuit. So for going all-in you need to have some fold equity, like BTN going for the 4bet bluff / fold with AQo, which won't happen often enough in my opinion.

If you call CO might come along, which can be nice if you hit a set but otherwise makes your equity even lower (assume BTN has AK and CO has KJ, the flop comes J high you are screwed even though you actually beat the 4bettor). And in any case, if you flat you probably have to stack off on most boards which have no A and no K considering the pot will be super huge, and then you risk get stacked by QQ+.

I would fold. Maybe my reasoning is not correct and it's a tad too weak, but honestly there are dozens of EV+ spots each session @ NL10, I'm not too interested in this one where maybe there is a tiny bit of EV but it's not that clear and we might do a big mistake.
[NL10] TT - preflop Quote
05-19-2024 , 01:54 PM
agreed. without solid whale/aggro reads I'm inclined to nope out of this one
[NL10] TT - preflop Quote
05-22-2024 , 01:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by boulgakov
Assuming CO always fold when you go all-in (big assumption), you risk 88bb to win a 214bb pot when called by BTN: you need 41% equity. Against {JJ+,AK} you have 33%, against {QQ+,AK} 36%. And you can discount some AK, since some people (including myself) would sometimes shove instead of doing a proper 4bet, especially with AKoffsuit. So for going all-in you need to have some fold equity, like BTN going for the 4bet bluff / fold with AQo, which won't happen often enough in my opinion.

If you call CO might come along, which can be nice if you hit a set but otherwise makes your equity even lower (assume BTN has AK and CO has KJ, the flop comes J high you are screwed even though you actually beat the 4bettor). And in any case, if you flat you probably have to stack off on most boards which have no A and no K considering the pot will be super huge, and then you risk get stacked by QQ+.

I would fold. Maybe my reasoning is not correct and it's a tad too weak, but honestly there are dozens of EV+ spots each session @ NL10, I'm not too interested in this one where maybe there is a tiny bit of EV but it's not that clear and we might do a big mistake.
Yeah, I think the fold is too weak. If we flat and CO comes along we would need 17.6% equity to break even. We would actually be quite happy in the spot you described TT vs AK Bs KJ has about 40% equity. Worst case I found actually is TT vs AA vs JJ and even that is close - around 14.9%. If either villain has something other than JJ+ we have the equity needed and in many instances much more. For example if both villains have AK we have 57.9%. I havenÂ’t calculated for the full ranges of villains, but just from these considerations I have to think that we have enough equity to call here.

Now the argument for folding - what if CO shoves? We would have to fold to a CO ahove, so we probably need a bit more equity than what I calculated. It still seems close though.
[NL10] TT - preflop Quote
05-22-2024 , 03:49 PM
equity <> EV. When we call we will play OOP vs 2 opponents without initiative, a good recipe for under-realizing our equity.

With your reasoning you might as well call 76o, you have 17% equity vs AA & JJ:


Equity Win Tie
MP2 17.15% 17.07% 0.08% { 7d6h }
MP3 64.50% 64.41% 0.08% { AA }
CO 18.35% 18.27% 0.08% { JJ }
[NL10] TT - preflop Quote

      
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