Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Poker Stars
SB ($33.08)
BB ($10)
UTG ($13.37)
UTG+1 ($39.30)
Hero ($33.32)
BTN ($7.72)

Dealt to Hero A A

fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.60, Hero raises to $3, fold, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls $2.40

FLOP ($6.15) K 2 Q

UTG+1 bets $4.70, Hero calls $4.70

TURN ($15.55) K 2 Q Q

UTG+1 bets $10.40, Hero raises to $25.62 (AI)


Notes on villain are 5bb open UTG. Only 10hands so 44/44 doesnt say much.
My first instinct was to fold this turn and wait for a better spot, I tanked 2mins timebank and decided that he just wouldnt bet this big with KK/KQ/QQ or a flush and decided to ship it.
Pretty sick spot for me at least. I can post results later if people are interested.

Opinions?

i'd rather just ship the flop and embrance the variance

Well he bets 50bb OTF and we still have ~300 behind so shipping the flop would be a pretty huge overbet.

It would be indeed but I think it's justified given the flop texture and our hand.

I don't mind your turn shove.

Feels like villain's turn bet is either nuts or bluff/semibluff with pairFD or STFD, not sure shoving the turn is right as you fold out hands you're beating and get called by hands you're behind... I would lean towards folding the turn in this spot.

That's wrong, villain is commited with any semi bluff. He needs 22% equity to call turn shove.

I see... if villain is calling turn shoves with a range that include hands that beat us and combo draws, is the turn shove +ev on our part? Wouldn't it be better to call turn and re-evaluate river? If shoving turn is folding hands that we beat, getting us called by hands that beat us, and giving villain correct pot odds to call us with draws, I'm not sure how it allows our opponent to make a mistake in this spot...

Sorry if that seems like a lot of questions, I'm new to these forums so I'm really interested in learning what to do in these spots.

What do you think is best when villain has a draw, make him pay more or give him a freecard?

If we just call as opposed to shove and villain decides to check/fold the river with a missed draw, we just lost 15$.

He basically has to put in another 150bb with 22% even if the correct play it would obviously be a much better situation for us with 78% equity.

hes obviously not thinking about bbs to begin with.. or equity.

your first thought make sense, thats why i like a flop shove and let him do the thinking. its not that you would hate if he folds on the flop

Turn is an easy fold imo. He doesnt have many AK and AQ combos so the NFD is less likely.

^that makes no sense, also your name tilts me a bit

Hmm, I see your point. The way I understand it though from what you are saying, we shove in this spot purely for value (since we are not folding anything but pure bluffs). Is that correct?

If yes, isn't that too thin in this spot? I would assume his value range (which is beating us) can be quite wide in this spot. Or is this a spot where when villains take a strong bet bet line, they are generally doing so with a semibluffing hand? Interested to know what you think.

As for missing 15$, villain may still bluff missed draws I think should we elect to call instead of shove the turn since we now include pure bluffs in his range that gets to the river (although I think I hate the calling the turn play now).

Interested to know what the results were... (if that is allowed here :-) )

Rofl nice level.

Value and protection yes

Villain is unlikely to be pure bluffing in this spot to begin with and semi bluffs are priced in. Villain is unlikely to bluff the river with 15$ left into a 35$ pot. A 4th heart might kill action or make us fold the best hand sometimes.

If you don't shove the turn, you have to fold. Calling doesn't make sense.

Hey FL if we had the A of hearts what would be better to do ott? and/or otf.

I wouldn't raise the flop with the Ah. I'd still ship the turn though unless it's a

+1. We're most likely crushed if he calls here, if he has KQ, Qx, and the flushes. and we're only flipping vs AK (one heart)

Since this thread died and people might be interested. He tanked and called with 66 with hearts btw ^^ River was a heart But the A