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nl10 sh river bluff nl10 sh river bluff

07-01-2022 , 06:55 PM
good bluff with blockers?
villains is a loser reg who is tighter postflop

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 201 BB
BB: 99 BB
UTG: 238.9 BB
MP: 22.9 BB
Hero (CO): 203.9 BB
BTN: 110 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J J

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (12 BB, 4 players) 2 9 T
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets 7.6 BB, SB calls 7.6 BB, fold, fold

Turn: (27.2 BB, 2 players) 6
SB bets 13 BB, Hero calls 13 BB

River: (53.2 BB, 2 players) K
SB bets 33 BB, Hero raises to 110.1 BB
nl10 sh river bluff Quote
07-01-2022 , 07:15 PM
you gotta 3bet pre
nl10 sh river bluff Quote
07-01-2022 , 07:59 PM
What is villain representing here besides 78 ? His line is strong. I am weak tight and I would be really impressed with your move on the river, but I'm not sure it will work against everyone.

I like flatting preflop sometimes and eventually flat the squeeze behind also, but probably not too EV+, a 3bet cleans the field and can bring you HU with a single opponent where your hand is gold.

Last edited by boulgakov; 07-01-2022 at 08:10 PM.
nl10 sh river bluff Quote
07-01-2022 , 08:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by boulgakov
What is villain representing here besides 78 ? His line is strong. I am weak tight and I would be really impressed with your move on the river, but I'm not sure it will work against everyone.

I like flatting preflop sometimes and eventually flat the squeeze behind also, but probably not too EV+, a 3bet cleans the field and can bring you HU with a single opponent where your hand is gold.
Don't flat JJ preflop with this many callers.

I'd venture the river raise is only folding worse hands and getting called by better.

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nl10 sh river bluff Quote
07-02-2022 , 12:57 AM
As played, I honestly think you can actually consider folding the turn here a lot of the time. If you think about the postflop action, you made a large 2/3 pot bet on the flop into 3 opponents, and SB decides to call that large bet out of position with 2 players still left to act. The 6 of hearts comes, and then SB decides to donk lead turn for half pot on the next street. IMO this line absolutely screams strength. When you say Villain is tighter postflop I doubt this is Tx often at all (which would be a punt anyways), so when SB leads into you (and you should also have a strong hand given you bet into 3 players) the value portion of their range should be pretty nutted - a bunch of sets and then some T9s/87s. They'll probably have a bunch of semibluffs as well such as QJ (which you heavily block) and some combo draws, but it's tough to know exactly how many. Given these assumptions, JJ is in pretty rough shape - it has almost no equity vs the value portion of V's range, and there's even reverse implied odds if you hit a J on the river vs some hands in this range (vs 78s or KQ of diamonds, or if the J of diamonds falls). Honestly, even a hand as weak as 9s8s might make a better turn call than JJ here.

Once you get to the river though, I do like the idea a lot in theory. If you're ever going to bluff here, JJ has to be one of the best hands to do it with, and not having a diamond seems like the better combo just in case your opponent is going nuts with AdJd or something. But if you're going to bluff river, I think it NEEDS to be all in. For this bluff to be profitable I think you're going to need to get sets to fold a lot of the time, and I don't think you accomplish that with the sizing you used. I think if V has something like 99 facing this smaller raise, they might talk themselves into thinking you have KT/22 or something and call getting 2.5 to 1. But if you jam, you're repping the nuts, and the Villain has a worse price too. Besides, if you get to the river with QJs, aren't you going to shove for value to try and stack 87s/sets that hero calls? Even though it's scary to put in the all 180 BB in there, I do think you're going to get a lot more folds by going for the overbet jam rather than the smaller 3x raise.

One final note - as for preflop, I mostly agree with the other comments that say you probably want to play preflop as a pure 3 bet or fold from the CO, but I think this is a unique case. You're really deep with the initial raiser (over 200 BB), so having calls here is theoretically perfectly fine. The deeper you are, the more you'll want to have calls in theory. I think the logic here is as you get deep the optimal 4 bet size OOP becomes huge (4x, or 34 BB over an 8.5 BB 3 bet), and there's a bunch of hands that you really want to play in position this deep that don't really mind playing multiway or calling a 12-15 BB squeeze, but really hates facing the massive 34 BB 4 bet (hands like 99-QQ, AJs, and AQs). GTO Wizard agrees and recommends a 3.6% cold call range (along with a 7.1% 3 bet range) from the CO vs UTG at 200 BB deep even with the higher NL50 rake (compared to 1.4% cold call at 100 BB). If you are going to play calls, JJ plays very well as a call here, so I like it as long as you're making sure you're mixing it up and also 3 betting JJ sometimes. But if players aren't adjusting their 4 bet sizes and ranges properly as stacks get deeper (which is the case 90% of the time), you can probably still get away with a simpler pure 3 bet or fold strategy too. One final thing to note about preflop - you are facing a bigger raise size at 3 BB which also makes cold calling less attractive (and 3 betting more attractive), but it's probably enough to make calling not viable.
nl10 sh river bluff Quote
07-03-2022 , 06:08 PM
Can you really fold here turn vs 1/2 pot bet?
nl10 sh river bluff Quote

      
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