PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100.6 BB
SB: 100.5 BB
BB: 202.7 BB
UTG: 126.5 BB
MP: 119.3 BB
Hero (CO): 103.6 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q T

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, BTN raises to 7.5 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 5 BB

Flop: (16.5 BB, 2 players) 7 7 3
Hero checks, BTN bets 4.7 BB, Hero calls 4.7 BB

Turn: (25.9 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero checks, BTN bets 18.5 BB, Hero calls 18.5 BB

River: (62.9 BB, 2 players) K
Hero checks, BTN bets 69.9 BB and is all-in

Villain is 20/14/9 only 100 hands

Flop I mix x/r and x/c.
OTR I feel humiliated. My hand looks exactly like a marginal pair. Villain will expect me to raise 7x a lot on the flop or turn and the Q and K favor his range a lot more than mine. I also block FD, which is propably bad because it is reducing his bluffing range.
So I should propably rather call 88 than QTdd here?
Am I really getting exploited for folding these marginal hands otr on NL10? I am starting to get paranoid

You gave his stats which seem decent (over 100 hands) but his flop sizing seems odd to me. His range would much rather use a larger sizing on this board than 1/3.

I think OTR you have to consider what you think he's actually capable of bluffing (especially at 10NL), I'm sure a solver would have you call QTdd (probably close to 0ev) at some frequency, but I think if you delete a lot of the optimal bluffs in his range, (AJo, AQo, ATo, AQs, AJs, ATs, A9s, A8s, JTs, T9s, etc) it becomes more of a fold.

No. I don't think having diamonds here matters as much as you think. You can probably just get away with calling most of your Kx, AQo, AQs, and you still have quite a bit of 7x (87s,76s). QTdd is probably close in theory but in practice I wouldn't think this spot is bluffed enough at 10nl to be close to optimal.

no

could've also just said

and the answer would still be no

though I don't play on stars and I've heard grumblings that the pool is drifting more and more towards aggro shitregs

I like a flop c/r when villain chooses a small size. With 88-QQ, he definitely wants to go half pot or bigger on this flop. It's a fantastic board for him, but he often needs protection. I would expect him to be weak a lot on the flop with this sizing, and to occasionally have KK or AA since they need less protection.

I like a river fold because I don't expect 10nl regs to have many bluffs at all here. I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. Regs who can have bluffs here tend to stand out.

Fwiw, it's good in theory to have diamonds on the river. Villain is supposed to bluff with hands that don't contain diamonds, so we unblock his bluffing range when we have diamonds.