Sup 2+2 ? ;] ... my first post here so plz forgive me if I screwed up something ....

villain 19/7/ 2k hands - with a note I did long time ago "tricky one" ( I know, not very pro note ;P ) ... if you want more stats just ask ..

I know that my bet size on the turn was kinda weird, but after he called my 3 bet on the flop all my alarms starts ringing and I wasn't rly sure what should I do ... and that turn bet was my decision at this particular moment I'm not exactly sure that was a correct play.

just wanna ask you guys, would you play it differently? or everything was OK with my play here?
basically how u guys would play this hand ...


thanx very much


Poker Stars $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (MP1): $10.00
MP2: $11.07
CO: $2.37
BTN: $7.45
SB: $4.63
BB: $5.57
UTG: $10.36
UTG+1: $4.81
UTG+2: $2.95

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is MP1 with T T
UTG raises to $0.25, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.25, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.25, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.82) Q 2 T (3 players)
UTG bets $0.45, Hero raises to $1.30, BTN folds, UTG calls $0.85

Turn: ($3.42) A (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $2.45, UTG calls $2.45

River: ($8.32) K (2 players)
UTG bets $6.36 all in, Hero says "omg", Hero says "that is bollox", Hero says "got a set", UTG says "no j",

Hero <????????>

I would probably raise a little bigger on the flop, but beside that I think the hand is fine. I would probably call though, as I don't see many jacks in his range, and there are a few two pair hands we get monies from.

I agree, only thing I can imagine is him getting frisky pf with AJs. I can't see JJ calling 2 barrels here.

thnx for the answers ... I've checked that situation in pokerstove as well (results below I'm not an expert in pokerstove but think I choose a good range there)

everything says that I should call that .. even back then I was thinking to call , but whole my body told me to not to ... and that was really but really weird feeling. that's why I decided to post it here to get some second opinion. another reasons that makes me to fold that, was the moment when he told me that he don't hold the Jack, like he wanted me to Call.

despite that it was a good decision for me at the moment I understand that in a long run that would b a bad move (folding)...

one more time thanks

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

63 games 0.016 secs 3,937 games/sec

Board: Qc 2h Td As Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.143% 57.14% 00.00% 36 0.00 { TcTh }
Hand 1: 42.857% 42.86% 00.00% 27 0.00 { JJ+, 99-77, AJs+, AJo+ }

I dont see why 99-77 are in this range tbh. Why would he call your raise oop with two over on the board, unless he is planning some elaborate bluff? Also AJ will be there less frequently than others as will sometimes be folded. It gives him a gutshot and one over card. He's got to have you pegged for a frequent flopraiser to flat that there.

good point

thanks. Not sure about range but it leans towards things that beat you I think. In fact I am surprised he shoves without the J.

The main thing here is that stove seems to be bandied around like the be all and end all solution to tricky spots, just because it can do maths. The thing is:

goods maths tool + bull**** input = still bull**** output.

Not to be hating on stove, but use it wisely. Only where you can actually range someone decently. Especially where the equity answer will be marginal eg, needing 32% equity to call and stove giving you 36%. If you have put one hand to many in there you are no longer good.

Another thing I feel is it does not seem to be used correctly to weight the frequency with which certain moves are made. As an simple example, assume we know miraculously he can only have AA and KQs preflop: will he call the flop raise with AA? Yes, always 100%. Will he call it with KQs? Not always(say 70%) but that means that KQ should be discounted as such in the calc. If you simply stove those two because KQ could be in his range you will get a very incorrect answer without weigthing KQ.

Its not a vey good example but I hope you get the point.

Okay end of rant. Disclaimer; I still think stove probably the best tool in terms of trying to find the correct play, just realize it is not magic. Like in your example, it looks like a clear call when it isn't.

I tend to think its a fold or at least a waaay more marginal call. I dont see two pair shoving this straight board. Thats just bluffing with SD value.