Alright,

guy is standard tag, who doesn't open that many btn's, 3bets a lot and NEVER folds to 3bets. He also c/r like 40% of the flops. He's up on me probably 1.5k at this point.

History is that he can be tricky and 4bet bluff and stuff, one 3bet pot I had AK flop came KK9, I bet 40 into 80, he raised to 92, I 3bet to 130 or so and he folded.

What are your thoughts on if we should cbet this board or rather c/c down all streets repping maybe TT or KJ JQ type of hand. Also what's our plan if we get raised when we cbet.

Anyone knows the math on how often someone flops a flush and how the equity against draws+pair or two pair is?

THanks!

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
2 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
BTN ($729.00)
Hero (BB) ($811.00)

Pre-flop: ($6, 2 players) Hero is BB A A
BTN raises to $12, Hero raises to $40, BTN calls $28

Flop: J 9 2 ($80, 2 players)
Hero ($771)?

What would you expect him to do with KsJx?
I dont really know what he would do.
I dont think i would raise ur cbet with a hand like that.
I have a feeling that he only semi-bluffs with As here, and would lean towards calling with like QxTs or KsJx or something. Its hard to answer ur question b/c we dont know what his tendencies are in a spot thats relevant.
Generally, I would bet flop (call raise), C/C any turn , and fold to river bet. (only if the deck blanked out on the turn and river)

I would bet/call and c/c any spade turn, prolly call any river.. B/c i think he only semi bluffs with As AND bets turn with As ( if the turn is a spade), and nothing else. And a decent amount of time, i think he checks the turn behind with the As if he makes the flush, in order to get value from w/e u might have on the river.

obv, i dont know what level hes on, but im pretty sure hes not thinking well ill bet my Ts on the turn if i hit a flush (after raising flop) b/c he thinks i will only do that specific play (on both flop and turn) with the As

B/C and C/C any turn.
I think i call if it came like, Js9s2s 5s Kx
Just because i strongly believe he will only raise flop, bet turn and bet river with the As only. And not even take that line all the time when he hits the nuts on the turn.
so in that circumstance i prolly b/c c/c c/c.

i hate giving up pots where villians KNOW i cant have the nuts or close to it and blatantly give them a perfect opportunity to bluff, which i think this would be

First of all, this is not an accurate description of a standard TAG. It's definitely a tricky spot with red aces, deep on this board. I think I would bet and call if he raises. On the turn, I would probably check-shove any non-spade barring a strong read based on his bet sizing / timing that he's really strong.

6-8% flush on this board if he calls like 15% of hands or so pf.
he has a hand stronger than yours about 11-14% of the time.
You said he would c/r alot so all the draws out there and all strong made hands make up for about 35% of his range.


cbet/call call turn call or fold river depending on texture etc. looks prety standard to me.

lol checkcalling the turn is pretty bad. checkshoving is pretty good

checking the turn at all is probably a mistake

I like a bet/call on the flop.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
2 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
BTN ($729.00)
Hero (BB) ($811.00)

Pre-flop: ($6, 2 players) Hero is BB A A
BTN raises to $12, Hero raises to $40, BTN calls $28

Flop: J 9 2 ($80, 2 players)
Hero bets $60, BTN raises to $144, $84 to Hero ($711)?



So we call his raise and c/c the turn or is there any merit in 3betting this flop?

think about hands he might have
if he doesn't have a flush, getting it all in on the flop is not a bad choice.. your equity vs pair + spade is not bad, and C/C against these hands is dangerous, because lets say a dud hits the turn, what do you do? check? or raise?
The next street leaves you in the worst of both worlds. spade or danger card comes = you might have to fold, who knows
dud comes = he might check behind and peel a river or you bet he folds

The problem is how deep you are.... lulz.. Personally since you have said he has been pretty agressive, I think he is taking the oppurtunity to bluff a wet board to a 4-bet preflop. I try and ship the flop... but then again I am SnG not cash player..

edit: there are no cards that u are gonna like on any street after this, I just don't like the check/call on turn + river option.... You also havn't said how often you 4-bet so, what range he puts you on is important in this hand aswell...

Check it on the flop

No, you call his raise and DON'T CHECK the turn.

hint: you don't open fold either

How much do you like leading on which turns?

i would bet/call on flop and crai on turn.

ps: DON'T LEAD on turn.this is a terrible play imo...

I didn't think of a turn lead, but I like it.

the fact that he "never folds to 3bets" scares me a bit cause that puts a lot more suited ax's and junk in his range. If this were a standard reg as you claimed, I'd be more inclined to get it in on safe turns...as is though, how bout a b/f on the turn? I don't think he can bluff to often in this spot. I don't think B/c is solid given his 3bet calling range. I think i make it like 255 on the turn and see if he can ship it in. If he can do it with air he's sicker than I.

I think that line is miles ahead of C/r turn which seems laughable to me. Course in the off chance he flats ur turn bet you have some interesting work ahead of u on almost any river...ugh.

Sick spot op good post

I still prefer check-shoving the turn to leading, but there's some merit to both plays.

Ok, I like the B/C line on the flop and C/R ai on any non spade turn. Idk what to do when a s peals off on the turn, B(small)/F?

So villain raised us there. 3betting flop is bad imo and folding is bad also that leads us w just calling the raise. I like the c/rai line on the turn w any non spade. Did you see him 2nd barrell weak in the match or was he the type to shut down? If a spade comes I would just give up.