Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramius
I dont have that many offsuit aces that range bet flop, bet turn and shove river, it's at-ako, so only like 4 combos with maybe a9o, i have to check flop with my weaker aces asvillains dont fold better aces OTF. Good question if i should take same line with kcq, kcjx and also shove vs river bet, i dont know TBH, proapably not, what i do for sure is that i valuebet J and A clubless runouts, and i have to shove k hi flushes on river too, if i barreled turn with them. Even if we remove villain tendencies (as long as they are not complete donkeys or xtreame nits) then what bluffs we have on river after bet, call of turn cr and facing river bet...
AK-ATo with Ac is actually 12 combos, and you could also consider including AK-AQo with the Kc or Qc, which would be another 6 combos, then you could also consider another 6 combos of KcJx and KcQx, as well as KxQc and QcJx. However, ATo isn't really a bluff ott, and would be a pretty good bluff catcher otr. So I think that is about 27 potential combos of offsuit hands with a Qc or better you can have, which is too many to turn into bluffs when the flush hits If all your FD take this line (which I don't think they should), you will have roughly 20 combos of flushes, which would probably require ~10-12 bluffs for balance. However, if you're checking back some FDs, then you will have no bluffs to balance, and if you check turn and the draw comes in, you will be unable to bluff efficiently. I think what you need ideally is a way to split these potential bluffs between checking and betting (with up to 1 offsuit club hand for every 2 FDs that take the betting line), and for those that bet, you need some that bet/fold. So, I'd consider b/f some of those that have the Qc (as they would be the worst bluffs) or some KcJx, and you'd then want some Acx to go into that b/c line. If you have any offsuit aces with the kicker below T, those are the best, as they have the least chance of winning at showdown, and may fold out some better hands. The higher the kicker on the A, the worse these are as bluffs though, especially ott. From that, I think AcJx can work when played this way, so long you're balancing it correctly. If you check turn and then raise a bet by villain otr, this will also be very profitable, as will calling a bet by villain otr with some of your better AcX, so you want to make sure both of those are lines you can take. Finally, if you're betting FDs and some offsuit club hands ott, your range here risks being incredibly weighted towards runouts where the flush comes in. If it doesn't, what are you left to bluff with otr when so many of your hands block villain's river folding range?
Also, if you're checking flop with weaker aces (or with any hands), you aren't range betting, so you should probably go bigger otf.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramius
Villain used almost all time bank, so i expect some big fold from him, but imo villain play just get punished by lack of respect for pre and postflop ranges, you are oop, you have no nuts or even equity advantage, just stop doing donkey raises with marginal draws and 1 pair hands
No one is denying that jamming the river here is a good play. And clearly, villain is very likely to have been far too aggressive with his turn raise, as he can do this with 1 combo of 22, 3 of 44 (TT seems unlikely for an aggro player to not have 3bet pre), the 1 combo of A2s you don't block (and maybe 2 combos of K2s) and then a number of Tx, a lot of which would probably perform better as calls. I think the point people were trying to make is that there isn't only one way to punish aggro villains, and this particular way is the highest variance (apart from 3betting turn, but I'm not sure you'd want to do that very often, if ever) and possibly not the highest EV (as I don't think an aggro villain will have a better non-pair hand ott, so your hand probably has well over 50% equity vs villain's range, but won't if it bets and gets called or raised). I think using Ac9 or Ac8, if in range, are considerably better bluffs than AcJ. I don't think your play is terrible, I'd even say it is reasonable at a low frequency or with some slightly different hands, but I think you can achieve similar or higher EV with much lower variance and better balanced ranges.