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NL 25 : Mistake or avoiding variance? NL 25 : Mistake or avoiding variance?

03-12-2011 , 08:25 AM
First one who opened was a fish 80/30/ 0 ~ 30 hands, and the BTN was nit 10/7/3.5 ~1K hands.
My thoughts were that nit called my 3 bet with KK or AA or AK and was hoping to get the fish into the hand.
How many times nit has JJ or 10 10 there , and why would he bet pot with AK if hed had it.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($25)
SB ($20.54)
BB ($22.33)
UTG ($17.01)
UTG+1 ($25)
Hero (MP1) ($26.30)
MP2 ($30.34)
CO ($19.02)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q, Q
UTG bets $0.75, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.75, 2 folds, Button calls $2.75, 2 folds, UTG calls $2

Flop: ($8.60) 7, 3, 5 (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, Button bets $8.17, 1 fold, Hero folds

Total pot: $8.60 | Rake: $0.43
NL 25 : Mistake or avoiding variance? Quote
03-12-2011 , 08:47 AM
Why did you check flop?
NL 25 : Mistake or avoiding variance? Quote
03-12-2011 , 09:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sexdotcom
Why did you check flop?

Because i am pretty sure nit has a better hand than mine, but yea b/fold would have been the right desision
NL 25 : Mistake or avoiding variance? Quote
03-12-2011 , 09:37 AM
if you bet on the flop you could easy figure out if he has better hand or no
NL 25 : Mistake or avoiding variance? Quote
03-12-2011 , 09:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brutal1ty
if you bet on the flop you could easy figure out if he has better hand or no
this is not a good reason to bet the flop

a good reason for betting the flop would be because you have a fricking 80/30 in the pot.
NL 25 : Mistake or avoiding variance? Quote
03-12-2011 , 10:22 AM
I think you are giving Villain too much credit personally. Your check is a massive indication that you are wary of what he might hold, you are likely not iso-raising in this position with 33, 55 or 77 and therefore he is relatively unconcerned about the check raise, and therefore if he has a pp such as JJ or even TT he can legitimately feel he has the best hand here a lot of the time, I wouldn't be surprised if he put you on AK.
NL 25 : Mistake or avoiding variance? Quote
03-12-2011 , 10:39 AM
With those stats BTN is almost never gonna flat call your 3bet with AA or KK.
NL 25 : Mistake or avoiding variance? Quote
03-12-2011 , 10:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Visticode
With those stats BTN is almost never gonna flat call your 3bet with AA or KK.
You want handhistories to prove it? Yes usually BTN never ever flat calls me with AA or KK , but in this case there isa monster fish in the hand.
NL 25 : Mistake or avoiding variance? Quote
03-12-2011 , 10:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MiCro
I think you are giving Villain too much credit personally. Your check is a massive indication that you are wary of what he might hold, you are likely not iso-raising in this position with 33, 55 or 77 and therefore he is relatively unconcerned about the check raise, and therefore if he has a pp such as JJ or even TT he can legitimately feel he has the best hand here a lot of the time, I wouldn't be surprised if he put you on AK.

So he assumed that he beats me and bet the pot to take max value from the fish? He thought about 2 seconds and bet exactly the pot.
But yes now i think i gave him too much credit
NL 25 : Mistake or avoiding variance? Quote
03-12-2011 , 11:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by saugakarel
So he assumed that he beats me and bet the pot to take max value from the fish? He thought about 2 seconds and bet exactly the pot.
But yes now i think i gave him too much credit
I think he's definitely trying to get max value from the fish yes, I think we can safely say he has a made hand and it beats what is on the board. But as you've said above, if he has a history of flatting with KK or AA in these spots then you're right to be wary, but it looks like you and everyone else is agreed that you should be betting and looking for reasons to fold, as opposed to checking and folding automatically. I guess this is the power that flatting AA or KK has, from time to time; your image is strong enough to get a thoughtful player to check fold what could be the best hand.
NL 25 : Mistake or avoiding variance? Quote
03-12-2011 , 11:18 AM
TBH I Think a nit could have any PP here because he's getting a ton of IO from the fish and your small range and imo nits love to set mine.

Nits usually won't/just don't flat AA KK and think to keep the fish in the hand they just want to stack off because they think you're strong and will stack off lighter, also he thinks the fish will stack/call a 4-bet as he was the original opener as well.

Nits could bet this flop to get value from fish with 77+ and your check on the flop conceals your hand and the nit knows your hand is most likely AQ/AK as you wouldn't 3-bet a fish and then check the flop if you had any pair, nits MIGHT call 1 street with 88+ if you bet, but most likely only continuing with JJ+/Sets, even Jacks is a stretch.

So bet flop and if only nit on turn c/f. He isn't going to bet his Jacks/Queens, well it least not most of the time.

If both fish and nit on turn i'm still probably c/fing as I don't think a nit is calling a 3-bet, calling a 3-bet continuation on flop and then betting the turn for value with worse; he would probably check behind pairs you beat.

Last edited by di0d80; 03-12-2011 at 11:37 AM.
NL 25 : Mistake or avoiding variance? Quote
03-12-2011 , 12:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by di0d80
TBH I Think a nit could have any PP here because he's getting a ton of IO from the fish and your small range and imo nits love to set mine.

Nits usually won't/just don't flat AA KK and think to keep the fish in the hand they just want to stack off because they think you're strong and will stack off lighter, also he thinks the fish will stack/call a 4-bet as he was the original opener as well.

Nits could bet this flop to get value from fish with 77+ and your check on the flop conceals your hand and the nit knows your hand is most likely AQ/AK as you wouldn't 3-bet a fish and then check the flop if you had any pair, nits MIGHT call 1 street with 88+ if you bet, but most likely only continuing with JJ+/Sets, even Jacks is a stretch.

So bet flop and if only nit on turn c/f. He isn't going to bet his Jacks/Queens, well it least not most of the time.

If both fish and nit on turn i'm still probably c/fing as I don't think a nit is calling a 3-bet, calling a 3-bet continuation on flop and then betting the turn for value with worse; he would probably check behind pairs you beat.

Sounds logical . TY
NL 25 : Mistake or avoiding variance? Quote
03-12-2011 , 01:54 PM
???..... i think your range should be pretty wide for raising this guy from utg, i dont think btn has kk/aa unless he missclicked, plus how much 10/7's dont get as much money in with those hands?, thats so bad for their nit strategy if they do... QQ is the nuts from he flat calls and you get that kind of flop.. i bet bet shove as he has a underpair to you or ak and utg has pretty much atc
NL 25 : Mistake or avoiding variance? Quote
03-12-2011 , 03:06 PM
MW with the fish in the pot, you have to bet the flop, well imo. Makes your had a lot easier to play and if nit raises or calls your bet, most def have to reevaluate the turn. He most likely has TT+, if not JJ+ in this spot I notice a lot. Plus we are awesome and you will most likely hit Q on turn when you take the bet initiative on flop
NL 25 : Mistake or avoiding variance? Quote
03-12-2011 , 05:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by metchie
MW with the fish in the pot, you have to bet the flop, well imo. Makes your had a lot easier to play and if nit raises or calls your bet, most def have to reevaluate the turn. He most likely has TT+, if not JJ+ in this spot I notice a lot. Plus we are awesome and you will most likely hit Q on turn when you take the bet initiative on flop

OBV we are that awesome
NL 25 : Mistake or avoiding variance? Quote
03-14-2011 , 04:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by saugakarel
Because i am pretty sure nit has a better hand than mine, but yea b/fold would have been the right desision
what
NL 25 : Mistake or avoiding variance? Quote

      
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