Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($230.36) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.7% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 14.2% | Hands: 315598]
SB ($404.55) [VPIP: 20% | PFR: 18.3% | AGG: 37.5% | Hands: 62]
BB ($200) [VPIP: 35% | PFR: 30% | AGG: 66.7% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 100% | River Agg: 100% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 0% | Hands: 5]
CO ($247.71) [VPIP: 23.1% | PFR: 23.1% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 40]

Dealt to Hero: Q A

CO Folds, HERO Raises To $5, SB Folds, BB Calls $3

Hero SPR on Flop: [17.73 effective]
Flop ($11): 6 4 3
BB Checks, HERO Checks

Turn ($11): 6 4 3 A
BB Checks, HERO Bets $7.84 (Rem. Stack: $217.52), BB Raises To $20.91 (Rem. Stack: $174.09), HERO Calls $13.07 (Rem. Stack: $204.45)

River ($52.82): 6 4 3 A K
BB Bets $87.85 (Rem. Stack: $86.24), HERO ?

Check turn. Most regs expect you to bet too much on this turn so you'll face a lot of raising. Probably bets to fold vs raise, you have a bluff catcher that can't improve.

River I guess call. 2p won't ob this much on this river and turn sizing doesn't seem like flush or a set.

Looks like a spaz bluff.

5 hands... looks spazzy. Doesn't make much sense. I'd lean call on this one.

Id be checking a lot on this turn, but where im at in the early stages with trying to rebuild my roll right now im looking to take away these kinds of plays from my opponents so im not here high variance bluff catching on the river. But i can see where you may want to get into that situation with where youre at.

Did you bet for the purpose of inducing a bluff?

Im not buying his story, call.

Yeah I bet to induce but wanted to see what you guys thought.

Results

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($230.36) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.7% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 14.2% | Hands: 315854]
SB ($404.55) [VPIP: 20% | PFR: 18.3% | AGG: 37.5% | Hands: 62]
BB ($200) [VPIP: 60% | PFR: 40% | AGG: 66.7% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 100% | River Agg: 100% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 50% | Hands: 5]
CO ($247.71) [VPIP: 23.1% | PFR: 23.1% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 40]

Dealt to Hero: Q A

CO Folds, HERO Raises To $5, SB Folds, BB Calls $3

Hero SPR on Flop: [17.73 effective]
Flop ($11): 6 4 3
BB Checks, HERO Checks

Turn ($11): 6 4 3 A
BB Checks, HERO Bets $7.84 (Rem. Stack: $217.52), BB Raises To $20.91 (Rem. Stack: $174.09), HERO Calls $13.07 (Rem. Stack: $204.45)

River ($52.82): 6 4 3 A K
BB Bets $87.85 (Rem. Stack: $86.24), HERO Calls $87.85 (Rem. Stack: $116.60)

Nice

You bet to induce in spot where he can have tons of value hands??

Weird turn spot

70% on this turn folds out so much

I don't get the inducing without reads. I agree the sizings look spazzy but his combo was decent tbf

I just chickened out on a play that reminded me of this hand even though its not really the same as far as the hand, it was the idea of betting to induce villain, but i did not have a made hand, but i knew i could steal this pot and i didnt do it. Im not trying to hijack your thread Doodoo, but i wanted your opinion on this.

This might sound crazy but i had a soul read on this guy, i just KNEW what he was doing in every hand and i was right.

On 50nl 5handed he opens first to act to 3x and i 3bet him to 10x w KQo, he called, everyone else folded.

Flopped 5 7 J rainbow

Villain checks, and I 100% KNEW he would XR w his 44-TT pocket pairs and call everything else. So I bet 1/3 and sure enough he check raised.

Now i thought if I jam its a good chance of a fold, but what if I 3bet flop like just over min click and then jam turn? Maybe that has better chance. What do you think?

So I didnt make the move in real life i was about to hit the button and i wussed out bc of where im at with trying to rebuild my roll. Very dumb.

But it reminded me of what you did with this hand. Really nice play.

You mean bluffs right? It's BUvsBB. Literally the widest formation.

Go deep dive MDA probe frequencies and you will see they are completely unbalanced and this spot is way overbluffed.

Soul read!

You never jam as IP here because solver XR's merged so your goal is to put all those hands you mentioned in 0EV spot. So minclick OTF is the only sizing you should use.

You actually don't jam turn though in this spot. You start using 4bet pot sizing (it's purely a function of SPR) and you go small again OTT. Why? To put these same hands in 0 EV spots.

You always want to play a 3 street game with your bluffs on non scary runouts. Rainbow boards will use small turn sizing where as if there is something like 2 FD's OTT. We start jamming.

You mean XR river OB is over bluffed?

Thanks Doodoo, appreciate the response

don’t hate the line by villain, more overfolds in x/r OB compared to OB OB.

Don't know for sure, I know the turn XR is way overbluffed and that is UTGvsBB data.

And the wider the formation the more a spot is overbluffed.

I think that might be a bit of a misread of the situation.

Yes, the wider the formation the more villains end up with hands without showdown value
and so they end up firing them too often.

However, in a tight formation like UTG v BB, part of the misconception is how rarely you have hands that can actually xr for value vs a range as strong as UTG.

I am pretty sure on range bet boards like K82r btn v BB, players under checkraise.
I don't know with 100% certainty, but I think your inductive reasoning does not quite hold, although I understand it.

Yeah they under xr flops, mda tell us that. But that isn't what I'm talking about.

I'm talking about turn xr,'s they overbluff turn because of how they construct their turn probing frequencies.

Meaning they put all their strong hands into turn lead range and the so the XR range is too weak?

Fair enough. I think I can get behind it, then.

how do you measure over bluffing ott?