I'd 3 bet the turn in part 3 because I think he has 7x or a worse boat the great majority of the time and isn't folding, so we want to get the money in now before potential action killers can peel which would make him more reluctant to stack off on the river: I'd exclude draws from his range because I'd expect him to raise the flop with them if he's going to be playing them in that fashion. Remember, us being OOP on the river makes it a lot harder for us to control how much $ goes into the pot, especially when we don't have initiative and it illuminates what is in my opinion an overlooked disadvantage to being OOP- most people tend to preach that being OOP is bad because it makes playing marginal hands so much more difficult and potentialy -EV etc., but it also makes it considerably harder to maximise the value of our strong hands. Anyway, I'm digressing.

Scare cards which can peel that could kill our action include the case K, any heart, any 8 and potentially even a Q, J, T or 9, which is rather a lot when we consider it.

In order to flat here, I'd need some kind of read or stats on his post flop tendencies which lead me to believe he was prone to floating a lot and/or FPS and was trying to reverse Baluga us or something. Absent of this information, I'd just assume that he's incredibly strong here nearly always and play accordingly.

Agree. If villain flats flop and raises turn, he is usually never folding here. I would definitely 3bet here for value; no need to play tricky here.

+1, and if he's bluffing he'll keep betting on river with his air some %,

sometimes I may clib but think thats bit fps

interesting thread verneer , I 'm going have to trawl through and get myself up to speed... will you be making a moving up uNL in 2011 after the games have changed due to this thread ???

Why are nutty hands (which you believe he has) scared of a Q, J, T or 9? Because we might be b/calling turn with some random gutshot? I think board is sufficiently dry to make calling an option.

If the board was changed to 7789 and we had 99 I'd definitely be advocating 3betting.

I thought a call was okay at first but after reading hating_uni's post I'm convinced a 3bet is best as well. Lot's of players don't valuebet very well at the microstakes.

We of course know we should keep valuebetting a Q, J, T or 9 river in his shoes but there's a decent amount of microstakes players that **** their pants for no reason on that kind of rivers.

yes this, I'm changing all the time... I seem to do quite ok in SB for some stretches (got better recently cuz number regfish that like to flat any2 IP and then bluff alot) but the BB i'm pretty sure got some leaks esp the BvB 3betting shenangians.

i'd like to add to this thread for the newer players though it's probably already been said that the origin of positions on the table is the BTN, as in say in extreme its 3 handed then even though your UTG too it's BTN range you'd be using at the minimum.

Your points are good and valid, but I just think that most players at 10NL won't be able to reason/hand read like that though and may just be afraid of the three straight+pair on board anyway if all they have is a bare 7x (they might also reason that the board developing in this way makes it harder for them to get value from worse).

Even if they aren't afraid, he won't fold his strong hands on the turn if we 3 bet but may be reluctant to put more money in the pot on the river with some of them if any of the other scare cards I mentioned peel, so I think 3 betting is better in any case.

Basically, it just boils down to whether or not you think that it's more likely that he's either bluffing this turn and/or raise/folding 7x for value (both incredibly unlikely imo), in which case we should flat, or value raising the turn to stack off but potentially slowing down on numerous 'scary' river cards, in which case we should 3 bet.

dude... no joke thats what my graph looks EXACTLY like. (except its at 10 nl =[
and FWIW verneers posts have transformed my game

Have a graph that forms exactly two W's and I'm impressed.

first thought here is we have $12.79, vill has us covered i want all their money.

im miniraising, they call we can shove river!if they shove turn, perfect! at these levels they are not raising draws on turn so im not worried about them folding!!

Yeah I see where you're coming from, I haven't played 10NL and only played 25NL / 50NL so I wasn't sure on the play at that level. 26/14 raising the turn is probably never folding if we just shove on him there and then.

Like you said it depends on whether we think he can bluff raise turn / fold 7x on the turn or shut down on the river because we called his turn raise.

If villain is able to float flop and then bluffraise a K turn IP, he's probably going to be aggressive enough to valuebet trips on just about any river. This doesn't change a lot to the conclusions drawn here but adds to the fact that just calling is okay when villain might be bluffraising here.

I don't give an unknown at the microstakes credit for bluffraising this turn, so again, I'm shoving.

I don't like shoving with the KK, but after some discussion, I def like a small raise there to keep initiative and make sure we get paid if he indeed has a hand he likes.

pot is too small on turn, we have to get some more money in

Yea we're a bit deeper than 100 bb and shove is overkill, didn't realise when I wrote my post. Minraise and shove river is fine (I assume that's what you're doing?), I still think call and c/shove river isn't bad either as it keeps in his bluffs if he has any.

yup me too

?

Hey Verneer:

first, awesome thread. You explain things really well and make me think a lot about the optimal line to take in different spots. Also, I really like some of your vids on CR, especially the "you too can crush the micros" where you go over all the player types and the best ways to exploit them, so thanks for all this.

I had a quick question about table selection. Have you played on any sites that seem particularly softer than others? I ask because I have played a lot of 10NL on Full Tilt and quite a bit on Stars, and Stars just seems so much softer than FT. Do you think this is a realistic conclusion, or do you think I might just be "running well" on Stars as far as table selection goes?

Also, I guess I'll add some of my thoughts on a hand:

Readless, I'd probably make a small 3bet for value, to a size that leaves me with around a half pot bet or less left on the river. Although a turn 3bet will almost certainly fold out a lot of his air that he may have, for some reason, decided to float us with on the flop and then bluff-raise the turn, I think villain's range in this spot is heavily weighted towards strong made hands like 7x, 88, maybe KQ-type hands that he will be unwilling to fold, or a strangly played AA or AK (possible, but unlikely IMO). I think a small 3bet allows us to get value from a stubborn villain with Kx who may well make a crying call on the river when we shove all-in for half pot.

I don't think villain is ever folding 7x or 88 in this spot, so it's possible we can get it all-in on the turn, but if not, I think the best play is to 3bet to around $5-5.50, so if villain calls the pot on the river will be $12-13 and we will have abour $7 left, so when we shove all-in on the river, villain is getting almost 3-1 on his money and mght make a crying call with Kx, and will obviously pay us off with 7x or a lower boat. I think this gets the maximum value out of the widest part of his range.


Am I close?

Great point, & a perfect example of how the headline stat can be misinterpretated. Keep a close eye on the detailed stats stats for a more accurate reflection of how the villain is playing vs., position.
Great thread btw, some superb posts, worn out 2 pens & a notebook already!

Yeah ... in addition, villain could be trying to buy himself a river with some kind of draw (straight draw or picked up flush draw). Don't let him buy it for cheap!

sry just agreeing with the hands from the UTG 10.5% and OTB 10.5% etc post
I thought 77 JTs and AA as well.

It's from ages back in the thread. One of the problems with finding a thread like this is I want to comment on many of the posts but they all go to the end of the thread and things have moved on.

verneer this is a very very very great, useful, magic, thread. Thank you.

Haha ... you're welcome. Feel free to comment on things, but make sure you quote them and are specific.

Can you please give us your line here Veneer?

verneer I just jam versus both oppenents with your 46 hand whilst playing 10/25 nl

For nutted hand Pt 3

If we call pot will be $7.5 with like $9 behind, shuv river and he possibly gets away from a really bad 7 and a K. 1/2 pot river and once again he prolly just calls w/naked 7. Also doesnt charge any kind of draw he might be playing

min raise $12.50 pot with $6.5 behind pretty much any legit hand that calls the turn will want to call $6.5 on river in a $18 pot

ship it in $18 pot with him looking at $9 to call any7 will call and a K or some spazzy str8/flushdraw might even call.

In game my play would of been call possibly jam and rarely min raise

But now i think min raise possibly jam and rarely call