{MICRO] Top Pair Facing River Bet vs Nit. Call or fold? - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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{MICRO] Top Pair Facing River Bet vs Nit. Call or fold?

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01-22-2022 , 11:05 PM

harmeu

enthusiast

Join Date: Dec 2021 Posts: 89

Nit meaning 1.2 AGG factor and <40 agg freq postflop. only 77 hands though

Yatahay Network - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 198.6 BB
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 97.3 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q

Hero raises to 2.8 BB, SB calls 2.3 BB, fold

Flop: (6.6 BB, 2 players) 9

SB checks, Hero bets 3.8 BB, SB calls 3.8 BB

Turn: (14.2 BB, 2 players) 2

SB checks, Hero bets 7.6 BB, SB calls 7.6 BB

River: (29.4 BB, 2 players) 7

SB bets 14.7 BB,

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01-23-2022 , 12:08 AM

JamAdebayo

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 1,522

You're good less than 50% of the time but no way I'm folding to that size, he'll have enough missed draws to make up for the 2p/T8

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01-23-2022 , 12:33 AM

harmeu

enthusiast

Join Date: Dec 2021 Posts: 89

Quote:

Originally Posted by JamAdebayo

You're good less than 50% of the time but no way I'm folding to that size, he'll have enough missed draws to make up for the 2p/T8

cool, same though process here. He had T8

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01-23-2022 , 02:03 AM

Ceres

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2019 Posts: 3,053

Good old lil fish bluff

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01-24-2022 , 11:02 AM

Claret~N~Blue

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 3,037

Wouldn't be super thrilled with calling here, but given the run out and villains sizing, we could convince our self to bluff catch vs missed draws if we feel villain is capable of bluffing..

I'm trying to look at this hand from villains perspective, and I'm struggling to see what he's trying to achieve with that sizing unless he's value betting, and vs this player type I find it hard to believe he's value betting worse than AQx here?!

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01-24-2022 , 11:11 AM

0NoobiePoker0

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2018 Posts: 2,313

I'd bet more on the turn. All kinds of draws he can have, charge him.

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01-24-2022 , 12:23 PM

newguyhere

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 7,169

villain's line is underbluffed, but pot odds i guess

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01-24-2022 , 09:37 PM

harmeu

enthusiast

Join Date: Dec 2021 Posts: 89

yeah, he was a proven calling station, so should have bet more on turn. Also should have realized that his donk bet represented that he hit a strong hand, because he had maybe 2 bets total over 8 hands seeing every flop. So my advice is trust instincts in situations like this. even with pot odds, I don't think he is bluffing enough here to justify.

I talked my self into calling and he had 10-8.

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01-25-2022 , 07:20 AM

newguyhere

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 7,169

Quote:

Originally Posted by harmeu

even with pot odds, I don't think he is bluffing enough here to justify.

The thing about pot odds here is he doesn't even have to be bluffing that much to make it a profitable call. It's also not just about how often he's bluffing, but if he'd ever value bet a worse hand.

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