opponent is a 21/16/5 TAG player. I ruled out 99 and JJ due to no flop raise. does he have TT often enough here to justify a fold?

Yatahay Network - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 120 BB
SB: 114.8 BB
BB: 196.6 BB
UTG: 134.2 BB
MP: 256.2 BB
CO: 90.2 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q K
UTG raises to 2.4 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 2.4 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (6.3 BB, 2 players) 5 9 J
UTG checks, Hero bets 3.6 BB, UTG calls 3.6 BB

Turn: (13.5 BB, 2 players) 5
UTG checks, Hero bets 10 BB, UTG calls 10 BB

River: (33.5 BB, 2 players) T
UTG checks, Hero bets 28.4 BB, UTG raises to 118.2 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 75.6 BB and is all-in

Hero shows Q K (Straight, King High)

You can't do this. It's not unreasonable to slowplay a set on this flop, and continue it on the turn/river with a boat. He has 9 combos of boats. But he probably has the other 12 combos of KQ. He may have some bluffs in him too. I'd probably call but I don't love it.

Hi, harmeu!

Flop
I think it's generally X on the flop with our hand.
UTG will easily defend against our 1/2 and 1/3 bets. And we will have to fold vs Villain raise.
We can bet if we have information that Villain often Cbet OOP SRP.
In this case, his range will be weakened and this allows us to widely exploit his checks.

Turn
We need to polarize our betting range on the turn and I would check KQ after betting on the flop.
Or used a larger sizing as an overbet of 120-130% with our hand.

River
It always sucks to get raised on the river on paired board.

We have pot odds of 35% and we have to call.



We can't exclude all sets on the flop.
Perhaps we could exclude them more if we bet 1/3 on the flop.
Usually, against smaller sizes, opponents are forced to raise almost all of their nuts, but in this case, I would not completely rule out sets.
It's also worth noting that not all TT in Villain's range will goes to the river after Flop & Turn Bets.

Don't listen to "experts."

Mass Data shows this line is extremely nutted and almost always a boat. Most likely candidate is TT.

Fold river.

Don't like pre call against a nit with dominated hands.

I appreciate the logical feedback everyone.

When I call QK against the nit it's always with intention to bluff them off the hand on later streets. Of course you really have to pay attention to your reads and his wtsd as well which I did, to make it profitable. King queen in my mind is a good hand to call with against a nit for a specific reason - the fact that it has blockers for KK and QQ combos. This makes it that much more likely you can accurately put him on a mid-pair and read the board and bluff him off his hand.

Without having this specific intention in the hand, too easy to overcommit top pair, so I agree in general.

I was leaning toward a fold but got curious and called. He showed what I thought he had, TT.

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You call preflop against a nit but then you are trying to bluff catch a nit OTR. Makes zero sense.

What are the bluffs? AKss, doesn't he have enough showdown value with a Jack or a 5 to just call? Therefore if you call it's hoping for a chop at best, which is rarely a good thing

I would mostly fold preflop although some sort of mix of calls and/or 3bets is fine too

Don't call pre.
I think it's fine to find fold otr. Line is super nutted the he should xr some 9x as bluff but they don't do it. He has 0 combos of KQ and probably 0 combos 5x in this line.

Yeah Looking back at this it seems ******ed I even put KQ in his range. Multitabling is fun

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I hadn't looked properly, of course KQ should never be here based on flop and turn. I'm still trying to find hands we beat, he's not overvaluing J9 or JT is he? Still struggling to find anything that's not a FH