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[OFFICIAL] MDA Quiz

View Poll Results: MDA: Are paired flops good or bad data points to call 0EV Bluff Catchers

Good data point

18 56.25%

Bad data point

14 43.75%

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04-15-2024 , 02:23 PM

DooDooPoker

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,586

Let's say you have a 0EV Bluff Catcher OTR vs a B30-B-B line in SRP.

Do you think a paired flop is a good or bad data point to call down light?

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04-15-2024 , 02:43 PM

YanasaurBBQ

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Join Date: Jun 2020 Posts: 2,127

I vote good. I think ive read about this before and that its because villain has less value and more bluffs and we also have less value

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04-15-2024 , 02:49 PM

DooDooPoker

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Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,586

Quote:

Originally Posted by YanasaurBBQ

I vote good. I think ive read about this before and that its because villain has less value and more bluffs and we also have less value

I will reveal results with data in 7 days to give everyone a chance to vote.

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04-15-2024 , 04:06 PM

Haizemberg93

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You mean good in sense relevant or good in terms of ev?

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04-15-2024 , 04:12 PM

DooDooPoker

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Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,586

Quote:

Originally Posted by Haizemberg93

You mean good in sense relevant or good in terms of ev?

I think it's pretty straight forward.

I'm asking if you think your opponent's range is stronger or weaker compared to average on paired flops and you have a 0EV Bluff catcher vs a triple barrel.

Good data point (weaker than average) = call

Bad data point (stronger than average) = fold

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04-15-2024 , 04:38 PM

slyless

Hand Evaluation Expert

Join Date: Dec 2021 Posts: 2,347

This seems to be a bad data point because paired boards have fewer potential draws that will bluff on the river.

Interested in the correct answer

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04-15-2024 , 04:46 PM

DooDooPoker

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Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,586

Quote:

Originally Posted by slyless

This seems to be a bad data point because paired boards have fewer potential draws that will bluff on the river.

Interested in the correct answer

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04-15-2024 , 06:39 PM

AskZandar

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Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 2,727

I'd expect b-b-b to be underbluffed and b-x-b to be overbluffed.

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04-16-2024 , 04:11 AM

Mr Spyutastic

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Good data point.

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04-16-2024 , 09:28 AM

#10

DooDooPoker

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic

Good data point.

Make sure to vote.

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04-16-2024 , 10:20 AM

#11

Mr Spyutastic

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DooDooPoker

Make sure to vote.

Is there a poll or something? I thought I did by posting.

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04-16-2024 , 11:27 AM

#12

Ceres

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Join Date: Mar 2019 Posts: 3,063

Good data point. Logic: or there wouldn't be a poll about it.

I'm not voting until the prize has been announced.

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04-16-2024 , 11:36 AM

#13

DooDooPoker

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Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,586

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ceres

Good data point. Logic: or there wouldn't be a poll about it.

I'm not voting until the prize has been announced.

Are you trying to use MDA on an MDA poll? lol

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04-16-2024 , 11:49 AM

#14

Ceres

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Join Date: Mar 2019 Posts: 3,063

It’s the inevitable future of poll theory

Posting on a monday also big factor. Monday = 82% strength

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04-16-2024 , 11:54 AM

#15

DooDooPoker

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Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,586

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ceres

It’s the inevitable future of poll theory

Posting on a monday also big factor. Monday = 82% strength

Let the countdown begin.

6 days until reveal.

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04-16-2024 , 12:23 PM

#16

redwhirl

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2022 Posts: 339

turn and river doesn’t double-pair the board right?

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04-16-2024 , 12:28 PM

#17

DooDooPoker

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,586

Quote:

Originally Posted by redwhirl

turn and river doesn’t double-pair the board right?

well that's a different data point, this poll is vs the aggregate across all runouts

All we know is that the flop is paired and I'm asking if you think that is over or under bluffed when compared to the average triple barrel.

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04-16-2024 , 03:30 PM

#18

YanasaurBBQ

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2020 Posts: 2,127

I wanted to add too that I think people dont go for as thin of value on paired boards so their betting range has more bluffs than on an unpaired board.

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04-16-2024 , 04:39 PM

#19

FreakDaddy

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Hey... you're posting again!

I had the over/under on 7 days, so you cost me some money bro.

I guess I'm the only one that doesn't understand the question. If it's 0EV, why do we care about a paired board? Call/Fold doesn't matter.

Are you really just asking if paired boards w/ that line increase or decrease opponent bluffing frequency?

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04-16-2024 , 05:05 PM

#20

DooDooPoker

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Quote:

Originally Posted by FreakDaddy

Yeah I had to give myself a month off from this place.

I'm saying if your hand is 0EV in theory (so in a solver). But you only know one data point about the spot and that it is a paired flop. Will this be a data point that makes you want to call or a data point that makes you want to fold?

Are other people having problems understanding this question as well? I thought it was pretty straight forward.

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04-16-2024 , 05:09 PM

#21

FreakDaddy

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DooDooPoker

Ya, got it... We want to satisfy the solver crowd, and find a neutral spot that would shift you into an MDA decision.

I guess I just didn't like the wording the first time I read it. ty.

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04-16-2024 , 05:19 PM

#22

FreakDaddy

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So as to the question now... historically these used to be massively over bluffed, especially on B-B-B lines. So I'm interested if that data has changed at all. Right now if I was in the spot, how much I opened up my bluff catching range would highly depend on stakes. The higher the stakes, the more I'd lean fold, the lower the stakes, the higher I'd lean call.

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04-16-2024 , 05:33 PM

#23

DooDooPoker

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,586

Quote:

Originally Posted by FreakDaddy

So my data is from 50nl-1knl.

I also compare B30-B-B/B50-B-B/B70-B-B to confirm patterns and make sure the sample size is big enough to avoid faulty conclusion.

Thanks for participating in the poll.

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04-16-2024 , 05:48 PM

#24

FreakDaddy

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DooDooPoker

I wouldn't lump this data together. If you can segment it, I think for a lot of flops and subsequent lines, you'll see significant enough differences, especially on paired boards. Some other textures, probably, will merge closer and won't matter as much.

It will be interesting to see how much the thinking has changed in the last few years, as more people are using solvers.

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04-16-2024 , 05:53 PM

#25

DooDooPoker

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Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,586

Quote:

Originally Posted by FreakDaddy

What's really interesting to me is how ranges shift based on flop cbet sizing wrt to what boards are now overbluffed/underbluffed.

For the purposes of this poll I intentionally used paired flops because the same patterns emerges in all 3 cbet sizing's.

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