Quote:
Originally Posted by dude45
Maybe for that one particular hand but if you start folding say all your 0ev bluff catchers 100 percent of the time isn't your opponent gonna start printing with their bluffs
I wanted to follow up on this as it's a concept that I struggled with when getting into solver work as well, and is a common misconception people have about theory/GTO. When our theory perfect opponent bets the river, his range is optimally balanced value/bluff for that size. If we fold all of our 0EV bluff catchers all the time, then yes, the value of his bluffs go up. But the value of his value hands goes down by an equal amount. His betting range does not make any more money. He'll have a cool red line though, and we'll have a bad looking one, but our green lines won't budge.
The only way we lose more money by folding a higher % than the solver recommends with 0EV hands is if our opponent adjusts to our over-folding, but he in doing so opens himself up to exploitation and thus the levelling war begins again. That's why some of this MDA data can be helpful in these spots, especially in anonymous pools where we don't get player specific reads. We can do better than GTO by shifting our play with our 0EV hands, either by folding in under-bluffed spots or calling in over-bluffed ones.